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Inflation, Interest Rates and Jobs: How Today's Economy Compares to Recessions of the Past

Inflation, Interest Rates and Jobs: How Today's Economy Compares to Recessions of the Past

This story is part of Recession Help Desk, CNET's coverage of how to make smart money moves in an uncertain economy.

What's happening

There's still debate about whether the US economy is officially headed into a recession, but the economic downturn is causing widespread stress.

Why it matters

Periods of financial volatility and market decline can drive people to panic and make costly mistakes with their money.

What's next

Examining what's happening now -- and comparing it with the past -- can help investors and consumers decide what to do next.

Facing the aftershocks of a rough economy in the first half of 2022, with sky-high inflation, rising mortgage rates, soaring gas prices and a bear market for stocks, leading indicators of a recession have moderated slightly in the past month. That could mean the economic downturn won't be as long or brutal as expected. 

Still, the majority of Americans are feeling the sting of rising prices and anxiety over jobs. The country has experienced two consecutive quarters of economic slowdown -- the barometer for measuring a recession -- even though the National Bureau of Economic Research hasn't made the "official" recession call.  

At a time like this, we should consider what happens in a recession, look at the data to determine whether we're in one and try to maintain some historical perspective. It's also worth pointing out that down periods are temporary and that, over time, both the stock market and the US economy bounce back. 

I don't mean to minimize the gravity and hardship of the times. But it can be useful to review how the economy has behaved in the past to avoid irrational or impulsive money moves. For this, we can largely blame recency bias, our inclination to view our latest experiences as the most valid. It's what led many to flee the stock market in 2008 when the S&P 500 crashed, thereby locking in losses and missing out on the subsequent bull market. 

"It's our human tendency to project the immediate past into the future indefinitely," said Daniel Crosby, chief behavioral officer at Orion Advisor Solutions and author of The Laws of Wealth. "It's a time-saving shortcut that works most of the time in most contexts but can be woefully misapplied in markets that tend to be cyclical," Crosby told me via email. 

Before you make a knee-jerk reaction to your portfolio, give up on a home purchase or lose it over job insecurity, consider these chart-based analyses from the last three decades. We hope this data-driven overview will offer a broader context and some impetus for making the most of your money today.

What do we know about inflation? 

Historical inflation rate by year

Macrotrends.net

Current conditions: The US is experiencing the highest rate of inflation in decades, driven by global supply chain disruptions, the injection of federal stimulus dollars and a surge in consumer spending. In real dollars, the 8.5% rise in consumer prices over the past year is adding about $400 more per month to household budgets. 

The context: Policymakers consider 2% per year to be a "normal" inflation target. The country's still experiencing over four times that figure. The 9.1% annual rate in July was the largest jump in inflation since 1980 when the inflation rate hit 13.5% following the prior decade's oil crisis and high government spending on defense, social services, health care, education and pensions. Back then, the Federal Reserve increased rates to stabilize prices and, by the mid-1980s, inflation fell to below 5%.

The upside: As overall inflation rates rise, the silver lining might be increased rates of return on personal savings. Bank accounts are starting to offer more attractive yields, while I bonds -- federally backed accounts that more or less track inflation -- are attracting savers, too. 

What's happening with mortgage rates? 

30-year fixed-rate mortgage averages in the US

Current conditions: As the Federal Reserve continues its rate-hike campaign to cool spending and try to tame inflation, the rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has grown significantly. In June, the average rate jumped annually by nearly 3 percentage points to almost 6%. In real dollars, that means that after a 20% down payment on a new home (let's use the average sale price of $429,000), a buyer would roughly need an extra $7,300 a year to afford the mortgage. Since then, rates have cooled a bit, even dipping back down below 5%. What happens next with rates depends on where inflation goes from here.

The context: Three years ago, homebuyers faced similar borrowing costs and, at the time, rates were characterized as "historically low." And if we think borrowing money is expensive today, let's not forget the early 1980s when the Federal Reserve jacked up rates to never-before-seen levels due to hyperinflation. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in 1981 topped 16%. 

The upside: For homebuyers, a potential benefit to rising rates is downward pressure on home prices, which could cause the housing market to cool slightly. As the cost to borrow continues to increase with mortgages becoming more expensive, homes could experience fewer offers and prices would slow in pace. In fact, nearly one in five sellers dropped their asking price during late April through late May, according to Redfin. 

On the flip side, less homebuyers mean more renters. Rent prices have skyrocketed, and housing activists are asking the White House to take action on what they call a "national emergency."

What about the stock market? 

Dow Jones Industrial Average stock market index for the past 30 years

Macrotrends.net

Current conditions: Year-to-date, the Dow Jones Industrial Average -- a composite of 30 of the most well-known US stocks such as Apple, Microsoft and Coca-Cola -- is about 8.5% below where it started in January. Relative to the broader market, technology stocks are down much more. The Nasdaq is off almost 19% since the start of the year. 

The benchmark S&P 500 stock index hit lows in June that marked a more than 20% drop from January, which brought us officially into a bear market. Since then, it's bounced back up a little, but some experts warn that a current bear market rally is at odds with expected earnings and we could see even lower stock prices in the near future.

The context: Stock price losses in 2022 are not nearly as swift and steep as what we saw in March 2020, when panic over the pandemic drove the DJIA down by 26% in roughly four trading days. The market reversed course the following month and began a bull run lasting more than two years, as the lockdown drove massive consumption of products and services tied to software, health care, food and natural gas. 

Prior to that, in 2008 and 2009, a deep and pervasive crisis in housing and financial services sank the Dow by nearly 55% from its 2007 high. But by fall 2009, it was off to one of its longest winning streaks in financial history. 

The upside: Given the cyclical nature of the stock market, now is not the time to jump ship.* "Times that are down, you at least want to hold and/or think about buying," said Adam Seessel, author of Where the Money Is. "Over the last 100 years, American stocks have been the surest way to grow wealthy slowly over time," he told me during a recent So Money podcast.

*One caveat: If you're closer to or living in retirement and your portfolio has taken a sizable hit, it may be worth talking to a professional and reviewing your selection of funds to ensure that you're not taking on too much risk. Target-date funds, a popular investment vehicle in many retirement accounts that auto-adjust for risk as you age, may be too risky for pre- or early retirees. 

What does unemployment tell us? 

US unemployment rates

Current conditions: The July jobs report shows the unemployment rate holding steady, slightly dropping to 3.5%. The Great Resignation of 2021, where millions of workers quit their jobs over burnout, as well as unsatisfactory wages and benefits, left employers scrambling to fill positions. However, that could be changing as economic challenges deepen: More job losses are likely on the horizon, and an increasing number of workers are concerned with job security. 

The context: The rebound in theunemployment rate is an economic hallmark of the past two years. But the ongoing interest rate hike may weigh on corporate profits, leading to more layoffs and hiring freezes. For context, during the Great Recession, in a two-year span from late 2007 to 2009, the unemployment rate rose sharply from about 5% to 10%. 

Today, the tech sector is one to watch. After benefiting from rapid growth led by consumer demand in the pandemic, companies like Google and Facebook may be in for a "correction." Layoffs.fyi, a website that tracks downsizing at tech startups, logged close to 37,000 layoffs in Q2, more than triple from the same period last year. 

The upside: If you're worried about losing your job because your employer may be more vulnerable in a recession, document your wins so that when review season arrives, you're ready to walk your manager through your top-performing moments. Offer strategies for how to weather a potential slowdown. All the while, review your reserves to see how far you can stretch savings in case you're out of work. Keep in mind that in the previous recession, it took an average of eight to nine months for unemployed Americans to secure new jobs.

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What's happening

Home prices overall are up by 37% since March 2020.

Why it matters

Surging home prices and higher interest rates make monthly mortgage payments less affordable.

What's next

Rising mortgage rates will make borrowing money more expensive, which will lessen competition to buy homes and eventually flatten prices.

Home prices continued to skyrocket in March as buyers tried to stay ahead of rising mortgage rates. 

Prices increased by 20.6% this March compared to last year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measures of US home prices. This was the highest year-over-year increase in March for home prices in more than 35 years of data. Seven in 10 homes sold for more than their asking price, according to CoreLogic. 

Out of the 20 cities tracked by the 20-city composite index, Tampa, Phoenix and Miami saw the highest year-over-year gains in March. Tampa saw the greatest increase, with an almost 35% increase in home prices year-over-year. All 20 cities experienced double-digit price growth for the year ending in March.

The strongest price growth was seen in the south and southeast, with both regions posting almost 30% gains in March. Seventeen of the 20 metro areas also saw acceleration in their annual gains since February. 

"Those of us who have been anticipating a deceleration in the growth rate of US home prices will have to wait at least a month longer," said Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, in the release. "The strength of the Composite indices suggests very broad strength in the housing market, which we continue to observe."

Since the start of the pandemic in March 2020, home prices overall are up by 37%. The current surge in home prices is a result of tight competition between buyers in a low-inventory market as they attempt to lock in lower mortgage rates before rates jump even higher throughout the year, as experts predict they will.

If you're considering buying a new home -- or are actively in the market -- the news isn't all bad. Interest rates are at their highest point in more than 40 years, and one potential benefit of that may, eventually, be downward pressure on home prices. As it becomes increasingly expensive to borrow money, fewer people will seek to do so, and homes for sale may receive fewer offers leading to, eventually, lower prices. In fact, nearly one in five sellers lowered their asking price during a four-week period in May and April, according to Redfin.

"Mortgages are becoming more expensive as the Federal Reserve has begun to ratchet up interest rates, suggesting that the macroeconomic environment may not support extraordinary home price growth for much longer," said Lazzara. "Although one can safely predict that price gains will begin to decelerate, the timing of the deceleration is a more difficult call."

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Getting a new iphone every 2 years makes less sense of community getting a new iphone every 2 years makes less severe getting a new iphone every 2 years makesy getting a new iphone every 2 years makes sense getting a new iphone every 2 years getting a new iphone and syncing getting a business cell phone

Getting a new iPhone every 2 years makes less sense than ever

Getting a new iPhone every 2 years makes less sense than ever

We all know the drill. As Apple's annual fall event draws close, many of us start to check in on our previous two-year smartphone plan to see if we're eligible for an upgrade in September. After all, the newest phone is only the newest phone for so long. Even for discerning shoppers like me, it takes serious willpower to resist the lure of a purple iPhone or 1TB of storage.

Mobile carriers have long persuaded many of us to upgrade our smartphones every two years, offering two-year contracts linked to free or low-cost phone upgrades to keep the two-year upgrade cycle going. That feeling of ponying up just a couple hundred dollars (or less) for the newest, fanciest phone available has helped perpetuate the rise of the de facto two-year phone upgrade. Case in point: AT&T and Verizon marketed a "free" iPhone 12 last year for customers who buy unlimited plans and commit to a multiyear deal. And the trade-in deals were even better this year for the iPhone 13.

But even though that might still be the norm in the US, a routine upgrade isn't a thing for much of the world. 

I was born and raised in developing Asia, a region where buying a smartphone is financially unattainable for hundreds of millions of people, much less a two-year upgrade. In India, the average person needs to save two months' salary to buy the cheapest available smartphone, according to a survey published by the Alliance for Affordable Internet last August. From my perspective, the trend of routinely upgrading a phone every two years when it doesn't change that much is a privilege, one that reminds me of the stark income equality gap as well as the ever-increasing digital divide globally.

Read more: Billions of people still can't afford smartphones: That's a major problem

Beyond that, and perhaps more tangibly, I think we should consider the environmental cost of purchasing a new phone. You've read the headlines: Climate change is accelerating at rapid speed. Countries around the world keep setting new records for the highest temperatures. There are more climate-related disasters than ever before, arctic caps are melting and biodiversity is disappearing faster than we can save it. What, exactly, happens to all those discarded phones over time? Does all that plastic ever fully decompose? 

Apple says it removed the in-box charger from its iPhone 12 lineup for environmental reasons.

Apple

Read more: Apple is opening up its world of iPhone recycling

Consumer electronics are responsible for tonnes of e-waste annually, which in turn contributes to the climate crisis. Experts have warned about how e-waste disposal contributes to climate change due to the chemicals released when the waste is burned, some of which are equivalent to carbon dioxide.

For years, developed countries like the US have shipped recyclable waste overseas for processing. Although that is now beginning to change, there are real costs. iPhones contain toxic materials like lead and mercury, for instance, which can harm the environment and people if disposed of improperly. And often e-waste isn't properly managed. In Southern China, there is a town called Guiyu that has become known as the world's biggest graveyard for America's electronic junk, and synonymous among environmentalists with toxic waste. The UN's 2020 Global E-waste Monitor report found that the world dumped a record 53.6 million tonnes of e-waste last year, of which the US is the world's second-largest contributor to e-waste, dumping 6.9 million tonnes.

Read more: I paid $69 to replace my iPhone battery: Here's what happened

While Apple is committed to a net zero supply chain by 2030, it's tough to argue that there's a better alternative to lower carbon consumption than less consumption. After all, Apple says the iPhone 12's end-to-end supply chain emits 70 kilograms of carbon to the atmosphere. If even 1 million people waited that extra year, we could save 70,000,000 kilograms of carbon from going into the air in a year. Imagine if it was 10 million or 100 million. It's something to think about before making that upgrade. 

The smartphone upgrade cycle has gotten longer

Even with the enticing deals offered by carriers, the upgrade cycle has seemingly lengthened. In recent years, several reports show how Americans and Europeans are more than happy to hold on to their phones for longer periods of time. In fact, in 2019 smartphone upgrades hit record lows at two of the biggest US carriers, Verizon and AT&T. Carriers like T-Mobile and Verizon seem to have responded to this by offering month-to-month plans, which offer more flexibility and options, indicating a potential departure from the "norm" of a two-year phone upgrade. 

Barring big-picture factors like the struggling global economy amid the ongoing pandemic as well as our increased mindfulness over the environment, I think this trend is persisting for a confluence of reasons. Phones today are receiving software, and therefore security, updates for longer. For instance, 2015's iPhone 6S is compatible with iOS 15, potentially dampening desires for a bi-yearly upgrade.

In addition to all this, smartphone innovation has hit a plateau, and the industry bears the hallmarks of one that's maturing: slowing smartphone sales growth along with the slower evolution of what we need, what we want and so forth. There are no big surprises here: Today's phones are getting more nice-to-have refinements rather than the awe-inspiring innovation seen just three or four years ago.

Decreasing technological gap

Up until a couple of years ago, smartphone manufacturers had us sitting on the edge of our seats, waiting for the next design refresh. But that's not as much the case anymore. With the iPhone 12 series, 5G was probably its buzziest feature -- one that understandably ended up triggering an upgrade supercycle. But the most exciting thing for many of us at CNET was MagSafe, which is hardly new. Apple's proprietary technology, allowing you to magnetically snap on attachments, was first introduced some 15 years ago with the first-gen MacBook Pro. It was then reintroduced for the iPhone 12.

Patrick Holland/CNET

When you look at what changed from the iPhone 11, you'll see the usual suspects on your list: 5G, OLED screen, new design. Admittedly there are a few more things you won't see everywhere, such as MagSafe and the Ceramic Shield, but nothing extra-special to truly write home about. Personally, the last time I was blown away by an iPhone reveal was back in 2017 when Apple introduced the iPhone X, which set new design standards for the modern-day iPhone. The iPhone X did away with the physical home button and chunky bezels of its predecessors and made way for a sleek, futuristic device that inspired the iPhone 12 family. Also, for the first time with Apple, we were able to unlock an iPhone with Face ID, Apple's facial recognition technology.

Looking at the iPhone 13, the narrative sounds familiar. We knew it wouldn't get a major technical upgrade (though that didn't stop us from wishing). While we appreciate the upgrades Apple did give the phone (a smaller notch, a larger battery and a faster screen refresh rate), the iPhone 13 is "not radically different," according to CNET's Patrick Holland. Plus a number of these new iPhone features, like the 120Hz screen, currently exist on Android phones, reinforcing the notion of a decreasing technological gap in the smartphone landscape. Apple itself says the life-cycle of a typical iPhone is now three years. So the company times its new releases accordingly: We get a major redesign every three years, not two, with more minor updates in between. 

Look no further than the glitziest non-Apple flagship launch of this year for clues: Samsung's Galaxy S21 family. Here the standout change wasn't made to the hardware or software, but perhaps to its least interesting feature: its price tag. The S21 lineup has a starting price of $800 (£769, AU$1,249), which is $200 less than last year's $1,000 Galaxy S20, making for an enticing deal. 

Apart from that, major differences between the S21 and last year's S20 were mostly incremental. I remember having to pore over the specs sheet to spot salient differences as I covered Samsung's virtual Unpacked event. Refinements were made to the usual suspects, including the processor, software and 5G. This might have been part of Samsung's response to the global coronavirus pandemic, but again it lends credence to the notion of that decreasing technological gap. It was also interesting to note the items Samsung dropped from the S21 flagship family to meet that lowered price. We said goodbye to expandable storage, bundled earphones and most notoriously the in-box charger, as Samsung followed in Apple's lead -- apparently in the name of the environment. 

Read more: Here's what we know so far about Samsung's Galaxy S22

Let's also take a moment to consider the question: What makes the S21 an attractive buy? Chances are, a great camera, fast performance, battery longevity and a crisp display with narrow bezels are at the top of your list. But the truth is 2019's Galaxy S10 boasts all those features. Heck, even the Galaxy S7 from five years ago did. My point is yearly changes have become too incremental to compel most people to upgrade with urgency, especially given the backdrop of rising smartphone prices.

Samsung's Galaxy Z Flip.

Angela Lang/CNET

Are we at peak phone?

I'm not discounting foldable phones. Samsung and Huawei have made undeniable technological progress, and their bendy handsets have dramatically altered the way smartphones are used and could represent the future of the industry. But folding phones are far from the mainstream. Phone manufacturers and carriers in the US have moved the most innovative devices to a price that's simply beyond reach for most people. For instance, the Galaxy Fold 3 starts at $1,800 (£1,599, AU$2,499) and Huawei's Mate X2, available in China for now, costs nearly $3,000 ($2,800, £1,985, AU$3,640 converted). Until these prices hit price parity with, say, the iPhone 12 Pro or Pro Max, foldable phones are likely to remain a niche product.

Smartphone innovation has stagnated, and this is not a knock against the consumer electronics companies or the tech giants that design them. Maybe we've reached peak smartphone, and this is as far as it needs to go. It could well be part of the reason why the race to upgrade your phones is slowing.

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iPhone, Galaxy S, Pixel: How smartphones evolved to dominate your life

iPhone, Galaxy S, Pixel: How smartphones evolved to dominate your life

This story is part of The 2010s: A Decade in Review, a series on the memes, people, products, movies and so much more that have influenced the 2010s.

Steve Jobs' pitch for the original iPhone in 2007 as a phone, music player and internet communicator was a landmark moment in the tech world. It crystalized the iPhone's almost mythic reputation from the start -- remember the nickname, the Jesus phone? -- and helped usher in the idea that smartphones could be chic. But looking back, those three capabilities barely scratched the surface of what we can do with the modern smartphone.

What can you do with one now? Everything.

"We never imagined how a decade later iPhone would become such an essential part of our lives, from streaming TV shows and playing games, to finding directions when traveling, to managing health and fitness, to opening garages in smart homes, to sharing beautiful memories with stunning photos and videos," Phil Schiller, head of marketing for Apple, said in an email.

As CNET explores the impact of various technologies over the past decade, none has changed our lives as dramatically as the smartphone. When the original iPhone launched, and the first Android phone, the G1, followed in 2008, they were still the stuff of gadget enthusiasts with loads of disposable income. Even 10 years ago, at the launch of the Motorola Droid -- the first Android phone to enjoy mass appeal, thanks to a massive marketing blitz by Verizon Wireless -- we were just getting started with the potential that came with smartphones and mobile applications.

Nowadays we take for granted that we have a virtual supercomputer in our pockets. Our iPhones and Android handsets let us hail a car right to our location, draw from a library of hundreds of thousands of television shows and movies stored online, or livestream our silly antics to millions across the world. You can shoot down cartoonish avatars of your friends in Fortnite. They've literally been revolutionary, with secure messaging apps playing a role in the Arab Spring movement in the early 2010s and the Hong Kong protests against China playing out today.

We never imagined how a decade later iPhone would become such an essential part of our lives.

Phil Schiller, head of marketing for Apple

Think about it: What's the one thing you can't leave your home without? Chances are, it's your smartphone. It's become such a critical part of our lives that we're starting to question whether we're spending too much time on them. Tech giants like Apple and Google have even introduced ways to tell you how much time you're spending on your phone -- with apps found on the phone.

"It's astonishing how quickly we've gone from being astonished to having an always-connected supercomputer in our pockets to somewhat resenting having a supercomputer in our pockets," said Avi Greengart, an analyst at research firm Techsponential. 

No matter where you stand on the spectrum of smartphone dependence, it's undeniable the staggering impact they've had on society, culture and how we live our lives.

"A lot has changed since 1.0," Stephanie Cuthbertson, director of Android, said during her Google I/O keynote speech in May. "Smartphones have evolved from an early vision to this integral tool in our lives, and they are incredibly helpful."

Clumsy to coveted

Smartphones had been around for years before iPhones and Android handsets became the default mobile devices of choice. The white-collar crowd happily tapped on the physical keys of their BlackBerrys. Old-school gadget enthusiasts would've proudly shown off their Palm Treos or their "Pocket PC" phones (with a stripped-down version of Windows jammed behind a smaller screen). Never mind that these devices required a precise stylus to navigate. 

With the original iPhone, Steve Jobs and Apple changed how we interact with the world. 

Getty Images

In 2007, Jobs and the iPhone changed the meaning of a smartphone, making a touchscreen device intuitive -- and fun -- to use, thanks in large part to the full browser experience and tricks like pinch to zoom. It's the only phone that I could pull out at a bar and legitimately impress women with. (That still wasn't enough help.)

In July of 2008, Apple introduced its App Store, opening it up to third-party apps. Google would follow with the G1 smartphone (also known as the HTC Dream) and its own app store a few months later. The G1 catered more toward gadget enthusiasts and lacked the mass appeal of the iPhone, but it was no less influential as the launchpad for Android.

Today, there are more than 2.5 billion active Android devices out there, making Google's OS the most dominant platform in the world.

"Today, everyone has a smartphone, and that's amazing," said Peter Chou, co-founder and former CEO of HTC, which built the G1, who stood on stage with Google co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page when the device was unveiled.

Smartphones have evolved from an early vision to this integral tool in our lives, and they are incredibly helpful.

Stephanie Cuthbertson, director of Android

But it wasn't until the debut of the original Droid, which next month celebrates its 10th anniversary, that Android catapulted into the mainstream, thanks in part to a huge marketing campaign from partners Google, Verizon and Motorola.

Upping the ante even further, Samsung jumped into Android in 2010 with a willingness to build up its Galaxy S franchise by way of an even more impressive marketing push, which created the two-horse dynamic we see today (Apple vs. Samsung, Apple's iOS vs. Google's Android).

"It's exciting to reflect on 10 years ago launching the first Galaxy S smartphone," said Drew Blackard, head of product management for Samsung Electronics America. "Over the past decade, we've introduced a number of industry-leading innovations that have given our consumers a better mobile experience and changed the way we think about smartphones."

From fart apps to limitless videos

The explosion of smartphone demand wasn't driven just by increasingly advanced, and bigger, hardware. The handset's Swiss Army knife utility came from the sheer number of programs available to us. It took Apple's App Store and the Google Play Store about eight years each to surpass 2 million apps, from standbys such as Instagram and Angry Birds to obscure apps for bird watching.

It's easy to forget that the early experimental days included fart apps that raked in $10,000 a day or useless virtual lighter apps. At that point Android, which initially didn't have the same oversight that Apple gave iOS, was a real Wild Wild West, with tons of junk apps.

You'd never be able to watch all that's available on video streaming sites, even if you stared at your phone all day. 

Sean Hollister/CNET

That's a far cry from the utility of apps today. You pretty much can't get lost, thanks to Google Maps. Protestors use secure messaging platforms like Signal and WhatsApp to coordinate demonstrations. Uber and Lyft mean you're never stuck without a ride -- even a helicopter ride. Apps like Life360 or Disaster Alert can literally save your life.

Entertainment buffs, meanwhile, would need several lifetimes to watch the countless hours of programming found on apps from Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime Video and HBO Go, among others -- with new options such as Apple TV Plus and Disney Plus emerging all the time.

Societal changes

When Samsung unveiled the original Galaxy Note in 2011, the then-gargantuan 5.3-inch display provided rich fodder for endless mockery. Remember, the first iPhone had a 3.5-inch display.

Today, the original Note seems quaint in its diminutive stature. Samsung's latest, the Galaxy Note 10, rocks a 6.8-inch display, while the iPhone 11 Pro Max features a 6.5-inch display.

Nowadays, smartphones are almost too large to hold in one hand. 

Juan Garzon/CNET

"The desire for more screen in your hand has exceeded the grasp of your hand," Greengart said.

When the world was transitioning to all-touchscreen phones, there was a constant debate about whether people could let go of buttons. Back in 2009, handset makers were still experimenting with different ways to cram QWERTY keyboards onto handsets, said Gartner analyst Tuong Nguyen. The G1, for instance, had a slide-out physical keyboard. 

Many of us can now blind touch-type on a display by memory.

The desire for more screen in your hand has exceeded the grasp of your hand.

Avi Greengart, an analyst at Techsponential

Smartphones are also notable for what they've destroyed as much as what they've enabled. Those little supercomputers have left a wake of failed businesses over the years.

When was the last time you saw a point-and-shoot digital camera? Google Maps rendered GPS navigation systems irrelevant, and when I want to feel really old, I tell younger reporters about a time when I used physical (paper) Thomas Guide maps to get from one assignment to another. Apple's iPod and other MP3 players, Cisco's Flip video cameras and even voice recorders have virtually disappeared.

Outside of luxury fashion statements, wristwatches became a novelty until companies like Apple brought back the trend by offering smartwatches. They work by connecting to -- what else? -- your smartphone.

Rise of China

The smartphone revolution was radical enough that it destroyed an older generation of handset stalwarts. Nokia and BlackBerry were the kings of the mobile device -- and now neither of those companies makes phones, having licensed out their names to upstarts eager to make the most of once viable brands. US phone pioneer Motorola is owned by Chinese consumer electronics giant Lenovo. 

Microsoft, which dominates PCs with its Windows software, couldn't make Windows Phone work. HTC, the maker of the G1, has virtually disappeared from the scene. 

Some of the most interesting phones are coming out of Chinese companies -- like Huawei, with its foldable Mate X. 

Juan Garzon / CNET

While Samsung remains the king of the hill for smartphones and Apple remains the most profitable player, much of the action in the smartphone world is now coming out of China. Huawei, embroiled in controversial claims by the US that it's a security risk, is the world's second-largest smartphone maker, and that's without selling any phones in America. TCL, a Chinese company best known for budget televisions, has the rights to make phones using the BlackBerry brand. 

Many features, like the addition of multiple cameras, a pop-up camera or the use of slimmer bezels, emerged from companies like Huawei or smaller Chinese players such as Xiaomi, Oppo or OnePlus.

The inevitable backlash

The days when we'd get giddy over each new Android or iPhone release are gone. And though innovation is still on the horizon with the rise of 5G and foldable phones like the Galaxy Fold, enthusiasm has given way to a more critical look at how these tiny slabs of metal and glass have really affected our lives. 

That little buzz or chime creates an almost Pavlovian need to check your phone, a phenomenon dubbed FOMO, or fear of missing out. It has critics worried that the generation raised on smartphones will be too glued to their screens to operate in the real world. After all, older generations are already hooked on their phones. 

"We all seem more preoccupied with what comes out of those little screens than what is going on around us," said Carolina Milanesi, an analyst at Creative Strategies.

The very companies that serve up these time-sucking gadgets are working on apps and tweaks to their operating systems to minimize the amount of time you need to spend on the devices. Through its Screen Time feature, Apple's iOS 13 lets you control access to apps, and allows parents to manage their kids' activities better too.

In November, Google launched a Digital Wellbeing tool to offer many of the same kinds of controls. Part of Google's presentation at its I/O developer conference in May was focused on being smarter and quicker about addressing your needs.

"Looking ahead, we see another big wave of innovation to make them even more helpful," Cuthbertson said.

We've come a long way from simply making phone calls, playing music and browsing the internet.

Originally published Oct. 21, 5 a.m. PT.
Update, 3 p.m. PT: Adds background.

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Getting a new iPhone every 2 years makes less sense than ever

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Getting a new iPhone every 2 years makes less sense than ever

We all know the drill. As Apple's annual fall event draws close, many of us start to check in on our previous two-year smartphone plan to see if we're eligible for an upgrade in September. After all, the newest phone is only the newest phone for so long. Even for discerning shoppers like me, it takes serious willpower to resist the lure of a purple iPhone or 1TB of storage.

Mobile carriers have long persuaded many of us to upgrade our smartphones every two years, offering two-year contracts linked to free or low-cost phone upgrades to keep the two-year upgrade cycle going. That feeling of ponying up just a couple hundred dollars (or less) for the newest, fanciest phone available has helped perpetuate the rise of the de facto two-year phone upgrade. Case in point: AT&T and Verizon marketed a "free" iPhone 12 last year for customers who buy unlimited plans and commit to a multiyear deal. And the trade-in deals were even better this year for the iPhone 13.

But even though that might still be the norm in the US, a routine upgrade isn't a thing for much of the world. 

I was born and raised in developing Asia, a region where buying a smartphone is financially unattainable for hundreds of millions of people, much less a two-year upgrade. In India, the average person needs to save two months' salary to buy the cheapest available smartphone, according to a survey published by the Alliance for Affordable Internet last August. From my perspective, the trend of routinely upgrading a phone every two years when it doesn't change that much is a privilege, one that reminds me of the stark income equality gap as well as the ever-increasing digital divide globally.

Read more: Billions of people still can't afford smartphones: That's a major problem

Beyond that, and perhaps more tangibly, I think we should consider the environmental cost of purchasing a new phone. You've read the headlines: Climate change is accelerating at rapid speed. Countries around the world keep setting new records for the highest temperatures. There are more climate-related disasters than ever before, arctic caps are melting and biodiversity is disappearing faster than we can save it. What, exactly, happens to all those discarded phones over time? Does all that plastic ever fully decompose? 

Apple says it removed the in-box charger from its iPhone 12 lineup for environmental reasons.

Apple

Read more: Apple is opening up its world of iPhone recycling

Consumer electronics are responsible for tonnes of e-waste annually, which in turn contributes to the climate crisis. Experts have warned about how e-waste disposal contributes to climate change due to the chemicals released when the waste is burned, some of which are equivalent to carbon dioxide.

For years, developed countries like the US have shipped recyclable waste overseas for processing. Although that is now beginning to change, there are real costs. iPhones contain toxic materials like lead and mercury, for instance, which can harm the environment and people if disposed of improperly. And often e-waste isn't properly managed. In Southern China, there is a town called Guiyu that has become known as the world's biggest graveyard for America's electronic junk, and synonymous among environmentalists with toxic waste. The UN's 2020 Global E-waste Monitor report found that the world dumped a record 53.6 million tonnes of e-waste last year, of which the US is the world's second-largest contributor to e-waste, dumping 6.9 million tonnes.

Read more: I paid $69 to replace my iPhone battery: Here's what happened

While Apple is committed to a net zero supply chain by 2030, it's tough to argue that there's a better alternative to lower carbon consumption than less consumption. After all, Apple says the iPhone 12's end-to-end supply chain emits 70 kilograms of carbon to the atmosphere. If even 1 million people waited that extra year, we could save 70,000,000 kilograms of carbon from going into the air in a year. Imagine if it was 10 million or 100 million. It's something to think about before making that upgrade. 

The smartphone upgrade cycle has gotten longer

Even with the enticing deals offered by carriers, the upgrade cycle has seemingly lengthened. In recent years, several reports show how Americans and Europeans are more than happy to hold on to their phones for longer periods of time. In fact, in 2019 smartphone upgrades hit record lows at two of the biggest US carriers, Verizon and AT&T. Carriers like T-Mobile and Verizon seem to have responded to this by offering month-to-month plans, which offer more flexibility and options, indicating a potential departure from the "norm" of a two-year phone upgrade. 

Barring big-picture factors like the struggling global economy amid the ongoing pandemic as well as our increased mindfulness over the environment, I think this trend is persisting for a confluence of reasons. Phones today are receiving software, and therefore security, updates for longer. For instance, 2015's iPhone 6S is compatible with iOS 15, potentially dampening desires for a bi-yearly upgrade.

In addition to all this, smartphone innovation has hit a plateau, and the industry bears the hallmarks of one that's maturing: slowing smartphone sales growth along with the slower evolution of what we need, what we want and so forth. There are no big surprises here: Today's phones are getting more nice-to-have refinements rather than the awe-inspiring innovation seen just three or four years ago.

Decreasing technological gap

Up until a couple of years ago, smartphone manufacturers had us sitting on the edge of our seats, waiting for the next design refresh. But that's not as much the case anymore. With the iPhone 12 series, 5G was probably its buzziest feature -- one that understandably ended up triggering an upgrade supercycle. But the most exciting thing for many of us at CNET was MagSafe, which is hardly new. Apple's proprietary technology, allowing you to magnetically snap on attachments, was first introduced some 15 years ago with the first-gen MacBook Pro. It was then reintroduced for the iPhone 12.

Patrick Holland/CNET

When you look at what changed from the iPhone 11, you'll see the usual suspects on your list: 5G, OLED screen, new design. Admittedly there are a few more things you won't see everywhere, such as MagSafe and the Ceramic Shield, but nothing extra-special to truly write home about. Personally, the last time I was blown away by an iPhone reveal was back in 2017 when Apple introduced the iPhone X, which set new design standards for the modern-day iPhone. The iPhone X did away with the physical home button and chunky bezels of its predecessors and made way for a sleek, futuristic device that inspired the iPhone 12 family. Also, for the first time with Apple, we were able to unlock an iPhone with Face ID, Apple's facial recognition technology.

Looking at the iPhone 13, the narrative sounds familiar. We knew it wouldn't get a major technical upgrade (though that didn't stop us from wishing). While we appreciate the upgrades Apple did give the phone (a smaller notch, a larger battery and a faster screen refresh rate), the iPhone 13 is "not radically different," according to CNET's Patrick Holland. Plus a number of these new iPhone features, like the 120Hz screen, currently exist on Android phones, reinforcing the notion of a decreasing technological gap in the smartphone landscape. Apple itself says the life-cycle of a typical iPhone is now three years. So the company times its new releases accordingly: We get a major redesign every three years, not two, with more minor updates in between. 

Look no further than the glitziest non-Apple flagship launch of this year for clues: Samsung's Galaxy S21 family. Here the standout change wasn't made to the hardware or software, but perhaps to its least interesting feature: its price tag. The S21 lineup has a starting price of $800 (£769, AU$1,249), which is $200 less than last year's $1,000 Galaxy S20, making for an enticing deal. 

Apart from that, major differences between the S21 and last year's S20 were mostly incremental. I remember having to pore over the specs sheet to spot salient differences as I covered Samsung's virtual Unpacked event. Refinements were made to the usual suspects, including the processor, software and 5G. This might have been part of Samsung's response to the global coronavirus pandemic, but again it lends credence to the notion of that decreasing technological gap. It was also interesting to note the items Samsung dropped from the S21 flagship family to meet that lowered price. We said goodbye to expandable storage, bundled earphones and most notoriously the in-box charger, as Samsung followed in Apple's lead -- apparently in the name of the environment. 

Read more: Here's what we know so far about Samsung's Galaxy S22

Let's also take a moment to consider the question: What makes the S21 an attractive buy? Chances are, a great camera, fast performance, battery longevity and a crisp display with narrow bezels are at the top of your list. But the truth is 2019's Galaxy S10 boasts all those features. Heck, even the Galaxy S7 from five years ago did. My point is yearly changes have become too incremental to compel most people to upgrade with urgency, especially given the backdrop of rising smartphone prices.

Samsung's Galaxy Z Flip.

Angela Lang/CNET

Are we at peak phone?

I'm not discounting foldable phones. Samsung and Huawei have made undeniable technological progress, and their bendy handsets have dramatically altered the way smartphones are used and could represent the future of the industry. But folding phones are far from the mainstream. Phone manufacturers and carriers in the US have moved the most innovative devices to a price that's simply beyond reach for most people. For instance, the Galaxy Fold 3 starts at $1,800 (£1,599, AU$2,499) and Huawei's Mate X2, available in China for now, costs nearly $3,000 ($2,800, £1,985, AU$3,640 converted). Until these prices hit price parity with, say, the iPhone 12 Pro or Pro Max, foldable phones are likely to remain a niche product.

Smartphone innovation has stagnated, and this is not a knock against the consumer electronics companies or the tech giants that design them. Maybe we've reached peak smartphone, and this is as far as it needs to go. It could well be part of the reason why the race to upgrade your phones is slowing.

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5 ways the world will change in 2022: CNET's predictions for the year ahead

5 ways the world will change in 2022: CNET's predictions for the year ahead

This story is part of The Year Ahead, CNET's look at how the world will continue to evolve starting in 2022 and beyond.

Even before the momentous events of 2020 and 2021 shook up the planet, the tectonic plates of culture, society and technology were already shifting and reshaping the world. The pandemic took those changes and accelerated them, exacerbated them, and in some cases, threw them into chaos. 

As we speed into 2022, one question remains: Where are we headed next?

In tech, health, money, transportation, home and family life, we can be confident of one fact: Things are changing, fast. As in years past, CNET has its finger on the pulse of the ever evolving world and we're confident our CNET: The Year Ahead stories will help you navigate these choppy waters.

During this three-week series -- which will include CES -- we'll especially tackle five themes that will shape 2022.

1. The pandemic and the future of health

COVID-19 largely caught the world by surprise. When the World Health Organization declared the pandemic on March 11, 2020, few of us suspected that it would lead to two years of shutdowns, social distancing and disruptions. Things appeared to be normalizing in mid-2021, but then the Delta variant -- and later the Omicron variant -- touched off renewed shutdowns.

Will 2022 be the year that COVID-19 transitions from a pandemic to an endemic? That's what we're all hoping, of course, but there's no going back to 2019. For example, expect more of the world to follow Asia's lead, where people have been wearing masks in public for years if they were sick (out of courtesy to the people around them) or immunocompromised. 

And, healthcare will never be the same post-pandemic. Expect telehealth to become commonplace now that a lot more people have been exposed to using video calls for health visits. And the COVID-19 vaccine will forever change the way vaccines (and potentially other therapies) are created. It's not unusual for vaccines to take a decade to develop, but these were created in 10 months using genetics and mRNA technology. This could prove to be one of the most important medical breakthroughs of the century.

2. Hybrid work and the 'Great Resignation'

Work and school were perhaps the most disrupted aspects of life during the pandemic. While schools largely returned in-person, work has been a far slower process. Many employees have decided that they prefer the work/life balance of remote work and many have migrated to be closer to family or moved farther away from city centers to have more space and fresh air.

Meanwhile, many employers have become infatuated with the productivity gains of remote work and the ability to scale down their commercial real estate holdings for significant cost savings. 

The most surprising trend that's likely to continue to gain steam in 2022 is the Great Resignation. More people are quitting their jobs and reprioritizing their lives than ever -- CNET's Farnoosh Torabi even has advice. In December, the US Labor Department reported that the number of people quitting their jobs remains at record high levels. How could we go through something as jarring as the pandemic for the past two years and not be changed by it? The Great Resignation is just one example of how those changes are manifesting themselves. 

3. Crypto, inflation and what's next for your finances 

Money and personal finance also remain in the midst of tectonic shifts. In November, inflation hit its highest level since 1982 at 6.8%. The inflation of real estate and cars will be closely watched in 2022, after eye-watering numbers in 2021. The stock market's bull run looks likely to continue with interest rates at such low levels, but its volatile swings are getting more pronounced. There's a big question about whether tech and other growth stocks have run out of steam or are getting ready for another run. 

Speaking of growth, cryptocurrencies have been breaking new highs and attracting more interest. The crypto exchange app Coinbase passed TikTok and YouTube to become the most downloaded app in Apple's App Store a couple times during 2021. Some view the world's most popular cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, as a hedge against inflation. Politicians, athletes and others started taking their paychecks in Bitcoin in 2021. We'll see if your employer will offer you that option in 2022.

4. Space, travel and the next internet

One of 2022's most dramatic developments is the new space race. China and Russia are collaborating on a future moon base (in 2030) as well as landing a robot on an asteroid (in 2024). Not to be outdone, NASA announced its next 10 future astronauts in December with ambitions for a future Moon mission.

Private space companies SpaceX, Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic all sent civilians into space in 2021, and they are all teasing the promise of a future of space tourism. Their ambitions will get bigger in 2022. This will be the year that SpaceX plans to put its Starship reusable rocket and space vehicle into flight for its first missions. Speaking about Starship, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said, "This is a profound revolution in access to orbit. There has never been a fully reusable, orbital launch vehicle. This is the holy grail of space technology. It is the fundamental breakthrough that is necessary for humanity to become a space-faring civilization." 

Meanwhile, SpaceX's StarLink and Blue Origin and Amazon's Project Kuiper will launch thousands of low orbit satellites into the atmosphere in 2022. Their mission to bring fast, reliable broadband internet at a reasonable price to every corner of the planet is a welcome advance. But, the side effect is tons of space debris that could disrupt astronomers' telescopes, collide with spacecraft and create massive amounts of space junk. Apparently, they've never watched the movie Wall-E.

5. The EV has arrived -- and it means business

Electric vehicles, or EVs, are poised for a huge year in 2022 after a number of breakthroughs in 2021, including the Tesla Model 3 becoming the bestselling vehicle in Europe in September. The writing is on the wall for fossil fuel-burning vehicles. The US will discontinue purchases of gas-powered vehicles by 2035, the UK will do so by 2030 and a broader coalition of countries have set 2040 as a global date for ending fossil fuel vehicles.

Musk, also the CEO of Tesla, predicted that the Tesla Model Y compact SUV will become the bestselling vehicle worldwide in terms of revenue in 2022 -- beating out the Ford F-150 pickup and the Toyota Corolla compact. But the biggest EV story of 2022 is likely to be the transition in trucks, with the Chevy Silverado EV, Ford F-150 Lightning, Tesla Cybertruck and Rivian R1T dominating the headlines. 

Consumers should also keep in mind that a gas-powered vehicle you buy today could have its resale value drop steeply in the years ahead as demand plummets because of people transitioning away from old combustion engine technology to EVs.

The future

The changes sweeping across the planet will not slow down in 2022, even if the COVID-19 pandemic finally recedes to become endemic. Beyond the five big themes mentioned above, CNET: The Year Ahead will cover a wide range of topics to help you get your head around what's coming.

We'll leave you with one last topic you should expect to hear a lot about in 2022: the metaverse. Plenty of us would love to step into a version of the holodeck from Star Trek, and it's hard not to notice the explosion of online gaming during the pandemic. But let's keep our metaverse expectations low for 2022. A lot of work needs to be done to build better virtual reality headsets and an ecosystem of truly immersive virtual worlds. If we get a few encouraging glimpses of the metaverse in 2022, we should count ourselves pretty happy.

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Test pilots. Engineers. Physicists. A US National Team cyclist. A SpaceX flight surgeon. NASA announced its 2021 class of 10 future astronauts on Monday, and they're a diverse group of high achievers. NASA calls them the "Artemis generation" because they're likely to be heavily involved in future Artemis-program missions to the moon.

"The women and men selected for the new astronaut class represent the diversity of America and the career paths that can lead to a place in America's astronaut corps," the space agency said in a statement.

NASA's candidates, the first ones since 2017, were chosen out of a pool of over 12,000 applicants and received their official introductions during an event near the Johnson Space Center in Houston. You can watch the replay here:

The candidates will kick off two years of intensive training in January. They will learn how to operate equipment for the International Space Station, prepare for spacewalks, advance their robotic skills, learn or improve their Russian language and operate a training jet. The reward for all that work could be trips not just to orbit, but possibly all the way to the moon.

Nichole Ayers is a major in the US Air Force and a combat aviator with experience in the F-22 fighter jet. "Ayers led the first ever all-woman formation of the aircraft in combat," NASA said.

Marcos Berrios, also a major in the US Air Force, is from Puerto Rico. Berrios is a test pilot and aerospace engineer. 

Christina Birch has a doctorate in biological engineering from MIT and is a track cyclist on the US National Team.

Deniz Burnham is a lieutenant in the US Navy and a former intern at NASA's Ames Research Center in California. Burnham has a background in mechanical engineering and experience as a drilling-projects manager.

This patriotic view shows an American flag with the SLS rocket at NASA's Kennedy Space Center. SLS will power the Artemis moon missions.

NASA/Frank Michaux

Luke Delaney is a retired major in the Marine Corps with experience as a naval aviator and test pilot. Delaney is familiar with NASA after having worked as a research pilot at the agency's Langley Research Center.

Andre Douglas has a collection of engineering degrees from multiple universities. "Douglas served in the US Coast Guard as a naval architect, salvage engineer, damage control assistant, and officer of the deck," NASA said.

Jack Hathaway, a Navy commander, is a distinguished aviator with "more than 2,500 flight hours in 30 types of aircraft." 

Anil Menon also has an Air Force background and was SpaceX's first flight surgeon. "Menon is an actively practicing emergency medicine physician with fellowship training in wilderness and aerospace medicine," NASA said.

Christopher Williams is a medical physicist and researcher studying image guidance techniques for cancer treatments.

Jessica Wittner, a lieutenant commander in the Navy, spent her military career as an aviator and test pilot. 

Most of the candidates are in their 30s. Delaney and Menon are in their 40s. NASA has stringent requirements for its future astronauts. They must be US citizens, pass a rigorous, long-duration flight astronaut physical, and hold a master's degree in a science, technology, engineering or math field, along with at least three years of related experience.

Each candidate spoke briefly during the event. Many of them talked about people who inspired them, the excitement of space exploration and the importance of teamwork. Berrios took a different route. He said he would like NASA to scale up the Ingenuity Mars helicopter to carry people, though that's probably a pipe dream.

NASA is hoping to launch its first uncrewed Artemis I test mission next year. Berrios may not get to fly a helicopter on Mars, but he might touch his boots down on the moon one day. 

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