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Inflation, Interest Rates and Jobs: How Today's Economy Compares to Recessions of the Past

Inflation, Interest Rates and Jobs: How Today's Economy Compares to Recessions of the Past

This story is part of Recession Help Desk, CNET's coverage of how to make smart money moves in an uncertain economy.

What's happening

There's still debate about whether the US economy is officially headed into a recession, but the economic downturn is causing widespread stress.

Why it matters

Periods of financial volatility and market decline can drive people to panic and make costly mistakes with their money.

What's next

Examining what's happening now -- and comparing it with the past -- can help investors and consumers decide what to do next.

Facing the aftershocks of a rough economy in the first half of 2022, with sky-high inflation, rising mortgage rates, soaring gas prices and a bear market for stocks, leading indicators of a recession have moderated slightly in the past month. That could mean the economic downturn won't be as long or brutal as expected. 

Still, the majority of Americans are feeling the sting of rising prices and anxiety over jobs. The country has experienced two consecutive quarters of economic slowdown -- the barometer for measuring a recession -- even though the National Bureau of Economic Research hasn't made the "official" recession call.  

At a time like this, we should consider what happens in a recession, look at the data to determine whether we're in one and try to maintain some historical perspective. It's also worth pointing out that down periods are temporary and that, over time, both the stock market and the US economy bounce back. 

I don't mean to minimize the gravity and hardship of the times. But it can be useful to review how the economy has behaved in the past to avoid irrational or impulsive money moves. For this, we can largely blame recency bias, our inclination to view our latest experiences as the most valid. It's what led many to flee the stock market in 2008 when the S&P 500 crashed, thereby locking in losses and missing out on the subsequent bull market. 

"It's our human tendency to project the immediate past into the future indefinitely," said Daniel Crosby, chief behavioral officer at Orion Advisor Solutions and author of The Laws of Wealth. "It's a time-saving shortcut that works most of the time in most contexts but can be woefully misapplied in markets that tend to be cyclical," Crosby told me via email. 

Before you make a knee-jerk reaction to your portfolio, give up on a home purchase or lose it over job insecurity, consider these chart-based analyses from the last three decades. We hope this data-driven overview will offer a broader context and some impetus for making the most of your money today.

What do we know about inflation? 

Historical inflation rate by year

Macrotrends.net

Current conditions: The US is experiencing the highest rate of inflation in decades, driven by global supply chain disruptions, the injection of federal stimulus dollars and a surge in consumer spending. In real dollars, the 8.5% rise in consumer prices over the past year is adding about $400 more per month to household budgets. 

The context: Policymakers consider 2% per year to be a "normal" inflation target. The country's still experiencing over four times that figure. The 9.1% annual rate in July was the largest jump in inflation since 1980 when the inflation rate hit 13.5% following the prior decade's oil crisis and high government spending on defense, social services, health care, education and pensions. Back then, the Federal Reserve increased rates to stabilize prices and, by the mid-1980s, inflation fell to below 5%.

The upside: As overall inflation rates rise, the silver lining might be increased rates of return on personal savings. Bank accounts are starting to offer more attractive yields, while I bonds -- federally backed accounts that more or less track inflation -- are attracting savers, too. 

What's happening with mortgage rates? 

30-year fixed-rate mortgage averages in the US

Current conditions: As the Federal Reserve continues its rate-hike campaign to cool spending and try to tame inflation, the rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has grown significantly. In June, the average rate jumped annually by nearly 3 percentage points to almost 6%. In real dollars, that means that after a 20% down payment on a new home (let's use the average sale price of $429,000), a buyer would roughly need an extra $7,300 a year to afford the mortgage. Since then, rates have cooled a bit, even dipping back down below 5%. What happens next with rates depends on where inflation goes from here.

The context: Three years ago, homebuyers faced similar borrowing costs and, at the time, rates were characterized as "historically low." And if we think borrowing money is expensive today, let's not forget the early 1980s when the Federal Reserve jacked up rates to never-before-seen levels due to hyperinflation. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in 1981 topped 16%. 

The upside: For homebuyers, a potential benefit to rising rates is downward pressure on home prices, which could cause the housing market to cool slightly. As the cost to borrow continues to increase with mortgages becoming more expensive, homes could experience fewer offers and prices would slow in pace. In fact, nearly one in five sellers dropped their asking price during late April through late May, according to Redfin. 

On the flip side, less homebuyers mean more renters. Rent prices have skyrocketed, and housing activists are asking the White House to take action on what they call a "national emergency."

What about the stock market? 

Dow Jones Industrial Average stock market index for the past 30 years

Macrotrends.net

Current conditions: Year-to-date, the Dow Jones Industrial Average -- a composite of 30 of the most well-known US stocks such as Apple, Microsoft and Coca-Cola -- is about 8.5% below where it started in January. Relative to the broader market, technology stocks are down much more. The Nasdaq is off almost 19% since the start of the year. 

The benchmark S&P 500 stock index hit lows in June that marked a more than 20% drop from January, which brought us officially into a bear market. Since then, it's bounced back up a little, but some experts warn that a current bear market rally is at odds with expected earnings and we could see even lower stock prices in the near future.

The context: Stock price losses in 2022 are not nearly as swift and steep as what we saw in March 2020, when panic over the pandemic drove the DJIA down by 26% in roughly four trading days. The market reversed course the following month and began a bull run lasting more than two years, as the lockdown drove massive consumption of products and services tied to software, health care, food and natural gas. 

Prior to that, in 2008 and 2009, a deep and pervasive crisis in housing and financial services sank the Dow by nearly 55% from its 2007 high. But by fall 2009, it was off to one of its longest winning streaks in financial history. 

The upside: Given the cyclical nature of the stock market, now is not the time to jump ship.* "Times that are down, you at least want to hold and/or think about buying," said Adam Seessel, author of Where the Money Is. "Over the last 100 years, American stocks have been the surest way to grow wealthy slowly over time," he told me during a recent So Money podcast.

*One caveat: If you're closer to or living in retirement and your portfolio has taken a sizable hit, it may be worth talking to a professional and reviewing your selection of funds to ensure that you're not taking on too much risk. Target-date funds, a popular investment vehicle in many retirement accounts that auto-adjust for risk as you age, may be too risky for pre- or early retirees. 

What does unemployment tell us? 

US unemployment rates

Current conditions: The July jobs report shows the unemployment rate holding steady, slightly dropping to 3.5%. The Great Resignation of 2021, where millions of workers quit their jobs over burnout, as well as unsatisfactory wages and benefits, left employers scrambling to fill positions. However, that could be changing as economic challenges deepen: More job losses are likely on the horizon, and an increasing number of workers are concerned with job security. 

The context: The rebound in theunemployment rate is an economic hallmark of the past two years. But the ongoing interest rate hike may weigh on corporate profits, leading to more layoffs and hiring freezes. For context, during the Great Recession, in a two-year span from late 2007 to 2009, the unemployment rate rose sharply from about 5% to 10%. 

Today, the tech sector is one to watch. After benefiting from rapid growth led by consumer demand in the pandemic, companies like Google and Facebook may be in for a "correction." Layoffs.fyi, a website that tracks downsizing at tech startups, logged close to 37,000 layoffs in Q2, more than triple from the same period last year. 

The upside: If you're worried about losing your job because your employer may be more vulnerable in a recession, document your wins so that when review season arrives, you're ready to walk your manager through your top-performing moments. Offer strategies for how to weather a potential slowdown. All the while, review your reserves to see how far you can stretch savings in case you're out of work. Keep in mind that in the previous recession, it took an average of eight to nine months for unemployed Americans to secure new jobs.

§

What's happening

Home prices overall are up by 37% since March 2020.

Why it matters

Surging home prices and higher interest rates make monthly mortgage payments less affordable.

What's next

Rising mortgage rates will make borrowing money more expensive, which will lessen competition to buy homes and eventually flatten prices.

Home prices continued to skyrocket in March as buyers tried to stay ahead of rising mortgage rates. 

Prices increased by 20.6% this March compared to last year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measures of US home prices. This was the highest year-over-year increase in March for home prices in more than 35 years of data. Seven in 10 homes sold for more than their asking price, according to CoreLogic. 

Out of the 20 cities tracked by the 20-city composite index, Tampa, Phoenix and Miami saw the highest year-over-year gains in March. Tampa saw the greatest increase, with an almost 35% increase in home prices year-over-year. All 20 cities experienced double-digit price growth for the year ending in March.

The strongest price growth was seen in the south and southeast, with both regions posting almost 30% gains in March. Seventeen of the 20 metro areas also saw acceleration in their annual gains since February. 

"Those of us who have been anticipating a deceleration in the growth rate of US home prices will have to wait at least a month longer," said Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, in the release. "The strength of the Composite indices suggests very broad strength in the housing market, which we continue to observe."

Since the start of the pandemic in March 2020, home prices overall are up by 37%. The current surge in home prices is a result of tight competition between buyers in a low-inventory market as they attempt to lock in lower mortgage rates before rates jump even higher throughout the year, as experts predict they will.

If you're considering buying a new home -- or are actively in the market -- the news isn't all bad. Interest rates are at their highest point in more than 40 years, and one potential benefit of that may, eventually, be downward pressure on home prices. As it becomes increasingly expensive to borrow money, fewer people will seek to do so, and homes for sale may receive fewer offers leading to, eventually, lower prices. In fact, nearly one in five sellers lowered their asking price during a four-week period in May and April, according to Redfin.

"Mortgages are becoming more expensive as the Federal Reserve has begun to ratchet up interest rates, suggesting that the macroeconomic environment may not support extraordinary home price growth for much longer," said Lazzara. "Although one can safely predict that price gains will begin to decelerate, the timing of the deceleration is a more difficult call."

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Source

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Behind the 'Flame' malware spying on Mideast computers (FAQ)

Behind the 'Flame' malware spying on Mideast computers (FAQ)

The Flame worm that has targeted computers in the Middle East is being called "the most sophisticated cyberweapon yet unleashed" by Kaspersky Lab researchers who discovered it. Lurking on computers for at least five years, the malware has the ability to steal data, eavesdrop on conversations, and take screen captures of instant message exchanges, making it dangerous to any victim. But a possible link to malware found on computers in Iran's oil sector has experts saying it's got to be the work of a nation-state.

CNET talked with Roel Schouwenberg, senior researcher at Kaspersky, the company that uncovered the malware, to find out who is behind it and how dangerous it really is.

What is Flame?
Flame is a sophisticated attack toolkit that leaves a backdoor, or Trojan, on computers and can propagate itself through a local network, like a computer worm does. Kaspersky Lab suspects it may use a critical Windows vulnerability, but that has not been confirmed, according to a Kaspersky blog post. Flame can sniff network traffic, take screenshots, record audio conversations, log keystrokes and gather information about discoverable Bluetooth devices nearby and turn the infected computer into a discoverable Bluetooth device. The attackers can upload additional modules for further functionality. There are about 20 modules that have been discovered and researchers are looking into what they all do. The package of modules comprises nearly 20 megabytes, over 3,000 lines of code, and includes libraries for compression, database manipulation, multiple methods of encryption, and batch scripting.

The malware is named after one of the main modules that is responsible for attacking and infecting additional computers. There are multiple versions circulating, which are communicating with as many as 80 different command-and-control servers. Kaspersky has an updated technical analysis here and McAfee's technical blog post is here. This report on the malware, from the Laboratory of Cryptography and System Security (CrySyS Lab) at Budapest University of Technology and Economics, refers to the threat as "sKyWIper."

"Flame is very modular. Basically a target will get infected with the main component and then the attackers will only upload modules to the target as they see fit," Schouwenberg said. "We assume that we don't have all the modules that exist in the wild."

How does it spread?
Flame spreads within a network via a USB thumb drive, network shares, or a shared printer spool vulnerability, but spreads only when instructed to do so by the attackers. It's unclear what the initial point of entry is. "We expect to find a spear phishing e-mail with a Zero-Day exploit," Schouwenberg said.

Since we first published this FAQ, Microsoft has revealed that Flame gained a foothold by spoofing one of the company's own security certificates. Specifically, the virus tapped into rogue certificates for Microsoft's Terminal Server that appeared to be signed by the company and were therefore seen as legitimate. Microsoft has released security advisory describing the steps it's taking to remove the risk, including the issuance of a Windows patch to fix the security hole.

How long has Flame been around?
"We have the first confirmed report of Flame in the wild in 2010, but there is circumstantial evidence that dates it back to 2007 and some speculate it may go back further than that," Schouwenberg said Kaspersky Lab researchers discovered the malware several weeks ago after being asked by the United National's International Telecommunication Union for help in uncovering malware dubbed "Wiper" that was stealing and deleting sensitive information on computers in Iran's oil sector.

How does Flame relate to Wiper?
"Wiper could be a Flame module that is uploaded to a target machine when the attackers want to wipe the data from the computer. There is no evidence to link the two together, but the timing is coincidental," Schouwenberg said. "So, we have an open mind to Wiper being a Flame plug-in." Iran's National Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT), which is called "Maher," said software to detect Flame was sent to companies in that country at the beginning of May and a removal tool is ready now. Recent incidents of mass data loss in Iran "could be the outcome of some installed module of this threat," the center said, speculating that attacks in which data from Iran's gas company computers may have been linked to Flame. Officials in Iran suspect that Wiper and Flame are somehow linked, the Associated Press reports.

Why wasn't Flame discovered earlier? Whoever created Flame took extreme efforts to write the code so that it would evade detection for as long as possible. "Clearly it's another multimillion-dollar project with government funding, so one of the top priorities has been stealth," Schouwenberg said. While a later variant of Stuxnet was detected because it spread aggressively, Flame only spreads after it is instructed to do so remotely. Flame is unusually large in size and uses an uncommon scripting language, Lua, so it doesn't look malicious at first glance. "Flame authors have adopted the concept of hiding in plain sight," he said. Because Flame doesn't use a rootkit technology, free anti-rootkit tools won't be able to detect it. "Finding it is going to be more complicated," according to Schouwenberg.

Who created the malware?

It's unclear who wrote and distributed the malware, but Schouwenberg said researchers believe it was a nation-state or someone hired by a nation-state because of the advanced nature of the threat. Just because the code is in English does not mean that an English-speaking country is behind it, he said when asked if he thought the U.S. and/or Israel are behind this malware as is believed with Stuxnet. Meanwhile, liberal Jewish blog Tikun Olam

cites an unidentified "senior Israeli source"

as confirming that Israeli cyber warfare experts created Flame to "infiltrate the computers of individuals in Iran, Israel, Palestine and elsewhere who are engaged in activities that interest Israel's secret police including military intelligence."

Is it related to Stuxnet and Duqu? Flame shares some characteristics with two previous types of malware that targeted critical infrastructure systems and which used the same technology platform: Stuxnet and Duqu. Schouwenberg thinks the same entities are behind Flame. For instance, Flame and Stuxnet both spread via USB drive using the "Autorun" method and a .LNK file that triggers an infection when a directory is opened. Flame also can replicate through local networks using a Windows-based shared printer vulnerability that was exploited by Stuxnet as well. Kaspersky hasn't uncovered Flame using any previously unknown vulnerabilities, called "Zero-Days," but since Flame has infected fully patched Windows 7 systems through the network, there may be a high-risk Zero-Day being exploited. "We are operating under the assumption right now that basically Flame and Stuxnet were two parallel projects commissioned by the same nation-sate or states. The Stuxnet platform was created by one team or company and Flame by another tea m or company, and both teams had access to this common set of exploits," he said. Flame is 20 times larger than Stuxnet, which was previously believed to be the most sophisticated piece of malware ever.

How serious is this?
Kaspersky researchers believe there is much more to Flame than they know now. "We operate on the assumption there are other modules we don't know about, which could elevate Flame from cyber espionage to cybersabotage," Schouwenberg said. "Given the conservative method of spreading, we assume that the vast majority of infections we are seeing are intended targets ... The amount of manpower required to maintain this operation is very significant. Flame uses more than 80 C&C (Command and Control) servers, which we haven't seen before. This shows the amount of resources committed to this project."

Who is being targeted with Flame?
The highest proportion of infections are in Iran, followed by "Israel/Palestine," Sudan, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, according to Kaspersky. Symantec says the primary targets are in "the Palestinian West Bank, Hungary, Iran and Lebanon." "With Flame, we haven't been able to say what binds all the targets together other than that they are in the same geographical region," Schouwenberg said. "We are trying to work with incident response teams globally to contact these victims and find out more, but right now we don't know what type of data has been stolen." Victims include educational institutions, state-related organizations and individuals.

How widespread is Flame?
So far there are only estimates as to how widespread Flame infections are. Kaspersky researchers have seen between 300 and 400 infections on customer computers reporting back to them, but researchers speculate there could be more than 1,000 infected computers worldwide. Most of the infections are in Iran and other countries in the Middle East. There are a few in the U.S., and Schouwenberg said those could be due to someone in the Middle East using a virtual private network based in the U.S. to circumvent Internet filters in that country as opposed to genuine infections on U.S.-based computers. "We're looking into sinkholing (taking control of) some of the Command and Control servers and getting data from there to have a more accurate reflection of infections," Schouwenberg said.

Here are the countries with the most Flame infections discovered by Kaspersky. Securelist

Does it affect me?
Most of the major antivirus software now detects Flame, so updating your security software will protect you. Kaspersky also has offered tips for manually removing the malware. The software is not designed to steal financial data and does not seem targeted at consumers, so chances are your computer is safe.

What does this all mean?
While Flame represents another sophisticated cyber espionage attack, it's not exactly a harbinger of cyberwar. Countries have been conducting cyber espionage for years, but it wasn't until Stuxnet, with its links to the U.S. and Israel, that a Western country was fingered by researchers. Stuxnet is believed to have been designed to sabotage Iran's nuclear program after diplomatic and other efforts had failed. That said, Flame does show that sophisticated attacks on critical infrastructure are happening, and succeeding. "The good news is that like Stuxnet, Flame appears to be highly targeted," Eric Byres, chief technology officer and co-founder of Tofino Industrial Security, writes in a blog post. "But the bad news is that this worm clearly indicates that industry, especially the energy industry, is now a key target in a rapidly growing world of sophisticated, government sponsored malware."

"You could call it military-grade malware, which is obviously a class above (other malware) and generally these are covert operations so remaining stealth is top-most priority," Schouwenberg said. "In the end, it was anti-malware that found this type of attack."

Editors' note: This FAQ was originally published May 30 at 2:40 p.m. PT. It has been updated since then with additional information, including on May 30 the Tikun Olam report of a source saying that Israel is behind Flame, and on June 4 with with details on Microsoft's security advisory to address the spread of Flame through rogue Microsoft security certificates.

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Source

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Behind the 'Flame' malware spying on Mideast computers (FAQ)

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Behind the 'Flame' malware spying on Mideast computers (FAQ)

The Flame worm that has targeted computers in the Middle East is being called "the most sophisticated cyberweapon yet unleashed" by Kaspersky Lab researchers who discovered it. Lurking on computers for at least five years, the malware has the ability to steal data, eavesdrop on conversations, and take screen captures of instant message exchanges, making it dangerous to any victim. But a possible link to malware found on computers in Iran's oil sector has experts saying it's got to be the work of a nation-state.

CNET talked with Roel Schouwenberg, senior researcher at Kaspersky, the company that uncovered the malware, to find out who is behind it and how dangerous it really is.

What is Flame?
Flame is a sophisticated attack toolkit that leaves a backdoor, or Trojan, on computers and can propagate itself through a local network, like a computer worm does. Kaspersky Lab suspects it may use a critical Windows vulnerability, but that has not been confirmed, according to a Kaspersky blog post. Flame can sniff network traffic, take screenshots, record audio conversations, log keystrokes and gather information about discoverable Bluetooth devices nearby and turn the infected computer into a discoverable Bluetooth device. The attackers can upload additional modules for further functionality. There are about 20 modules that have been discovered and researchers are looking into what they all do. The package of modules comprises nearly 20 megabytes, over 3,000 lines of code, and includes libraries for compression, database manipulation, multiple methods of encryption, and batch scripting.

The malware is named after one of the main modules that is responsible for attacking and infecting additional computers. There are multiple versions circulating, which are communicating with as many as 80 different command-and-control servers. Kaspersky has an updated technical analysis here and McAfee's technical blog post is here. This report on the malware, from the Laboratory of Cryptography and System Security (CrySyS Lab) at Budapest University of Technology and Economics, refers to the threat as "sKyWIper."

"Flame is very modular. Basically a target will get infected with the main component and then the attackers will only upload modules to the target as they see fit," Schouwenberg said. "We assume that we don't have all the modules that exist in the wild."

How does it spread?
Flame spreads within a network via a USB thumb drive, network shares, or a shared printer spool vulnerability, but spreads only when instructed to do so by the attackers. It's unclear what the initial point of entry is. "We expect to find a spear phishing e-mail with a Zero-Day exploit," Schouwenberg said.

Since we first published this FAQ, Microsoft has revealed that Flame gained a foothold by spoofing one of the company's own security certificates. Specifically, the virus tapped into rogue certificates for Microsoft's Terminal Server that appeared to be signed by the company and were therefore seen as legitimate. Microsoft has released security advisory describing the steps it's taking to remove the risk, including the issuance of a Windows patch to fix the security hole.

How long has Flame been around?
"We have the first confirmed report of Flame in the wild in 2010, but there is circumstantial evidence that dates it back to 2007 and some speculate it may go back further than that," Schouwenberg said Kaspersky Lab researchers discovered the malware several weeks ago after being asked by the United National's International Telecommunication Union for help in uncovering malware dubbed "Wiper" that was stealing and deleting sensitive information on computers in Iran's oil sector.

How does Flame relate to Wiper?
"Wiper could be a Flame module that is uploaded to a target machine when the attackers want to wipe the data from the computer. There is no evidence to link the two together, but the timing is coincidental," Schouwenberg said. "So, we have an open mind to Wiper being a Flame plug-in." Iran's National Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT), which is called "Maher," said software to detect Flame was sent to companies in that country at the beginning of May and a removal tool is ready now. Recent incidents of mass data loss in Iran "could be the outcome of some installed module of this threat," the center said, speculating that attacks in which data from Iran's gas company computers may have been linked to Flame. Officials in Iran suspect that Wiper and Flame are somehow linked, the Associated Press reports.

Why wasn't Flame discovered earlier? Whoever created Flame took extreme efforts to write the code so that it would evade detection for as long as possible. "Clearly it's another multimillion-dollar project with government funding, so one of the top priorities has been stealth," Schouwenberg said. While a later variant of Stuxnet was detected because it spread aggressively, Flame only spreads after it is instructed to do so remotely. Flame is unusually large in size and uses an uncommon scripting language, Lua, so it doesn't look malicious at first glance. "Flame authors have adopted the concept of hiding in plain sight," he said. Because Flame doesn't use a rootkit technology, free anti-rootkit tools won't be able to detect it. "Finding it is going to be more complicated," according to Schouwenberg.

Who created the malware?

It's unclear who wrote and distributed the malware, but Schouwenberg said researchers believe it was a nation-state or someone hired by a nation-state because of the advanced nature of the threat. Just because the code is in English does not mean that an English-speaking country is behind it, he said when asked if he thought the U.S. and/or Israel are behind this malware as is believed with Stuxnet. Meanwhile, liberal Jewish blog Tikun Olam

cites an unidentified "senior Israeli source"

as confirming that Israeli cyber warfare experts created Flame to "infiltrate the computers of individuals in Iran, Israel, Palestine and elsewhere who are engaged in activities that interest Israel's secret police including military intelligence."

Is it related to Stuxnet and Duqu? Flame shares some characteristics with two previous types of malware that targeted critical infrastructure systems and which used the same technology platform: Stuxnet and Duqu. Schouwenberg thinks the same entities are behind Flame. For instance, Flame and Stuxnet both spread via USB drive using the "Autorun" method and a .LNK file that triggers an infection when a directory is opened. Flame also can replicate through local networks using a Windows-based shared printer vulnerability that was exploited by Stuxnet as well. Kaspersky hasn't uncovered Flame using any previously unknown vulnerabilities, called "Zero-Days," but since Flame has infected fully patched Windows 7 systems through the network, there may be a high-risk Zero-Day being exploited. "We are operating under the assumption right now that basically Flame and Stuxnet were two parallel projects commissioned by the same nation-sate or states. The Stuxnet platform was created by one team or company and Flame by another tea m or company, and both teams had access to this common set of exploits," he said. Flame is 20 times larger than Stuxnet, which was previously believed to be the most sophisticated piece of malware ever.

How serious is this?
Kaspersky researchers believe there is much more to Flame than they know now. "We operate on the assumption there are other modules we don't know about, which could elevate Flame from cyber espionage to cybersabotage," Schouwenberg said. "Given the conservative method of spreading, we assume that the vast majority of infections we are seeing are intended targets ... The amount of manpower required to maintain this operation is very significant. Flame uses more than 80 C&C (Command and Control) servers, which we haven't seen before. This shows the amount of resources committed to this project."

Who is being targeted with Flame?
The highest proportion of infections are in Iran, followed by "Israel/Palestine," Sudan, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, according to Kaspersky. Symantec says the primary targets are in "the Palestinian West Bank, Hungary, Iran and Lebanon." "With Flame, we haven't been able to say what binds all the targets together other than that they are in the same geographical region," Schouwenberg said. "We are trying to work with incident response teams globally to contact these victims and find out more, but right now we don't know what type of data has been stolen." Victims include educational institutions, state-related organizations and individuals.

How widespread is Flame?
So far there are only estimates as to how widespread Flame infections are. Kaspersky researchers have seen between 300 and 400 infections on customer computers reporting back to them, but researchers speculate there could be more than 1,000 infected computers worldwide. Most of the infections are in Iran and other countries in the Middle East. There are a few in the U.S., and Schouwenberg said those could be due to someone in the Middle East using a virtual private network based in the U.S. to circumvent Internet filters in that country as opposed to genuine infections on U.S.-based computers. "We're looking into sinkholing (taking control of) some of the Command and Control servers and getting data from there to have a more accurate reflection of infections," Schouwenberg said.

Here are the countries with the most Flame infections discovered by Kaspersky. Securelist

Does it affect me?
Most of the major antivirus software now detects Flame, so updating your security software will protect you. Kaspersky also has offered tips for manually removing the malware. The software is not designed to steal financial data and does not seem targeted at consumers, so chances are your computer is safe.

What does this all mean?
While Flame represents another sophisticated cyber espionage attack, it's not exactly a harbinger of cyberwar. Countries have been conducting cyber espionage for years, but it wasn't until Stuxnet, with its links to the U.S. and Israel, that a Western country was fingered by researchers. Stuxnet is believed to have been designed to sabotage Iran's nuclear program after diplomatic and other efforts had failed. That said, Flame does show that sophisticated attacks on critical infrastructure are happening, and succeeding. "The good news is that like Stuxnet, Flame appears to be highly targeted," Eric Byres, chief technology officer and co-founder of Tofino Industrial Security, writes in a blog post. "But the bad news is that this worm clearly indicates that industry, especially the energy industry, is now a key target in a rapidly growing world of sophisticated, government sponsored malware."

"You could call it military-grade malware, which is obviously a class above (other malware) and generally these are covert operations so remaining stealth is top-most priority," Schouwenberg said. "In the end, it was anti-malware that found this type of attack."

Editors' note: This FAQ was originally published May 30 at 2:40 p.m. PT. It has been updated since then with additional information, including on May 30 the Tikun Olam report of a source saying that Israel is behind Flame, and on June 4 with with details on Microsoft's security advisory to address the spread of Flame through rogue Microsoft security certificates.

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Source

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Labor Day Weekend Travel: What to Do if Your Flight Is Delayed or Canceled

Labor Day Weekend Travel: What to Do if Your Flight Is Delayed or Canceled

What's happening

An estimated 12.8 million Americans will fly over Labor Day weekend.

Why it matters

While air travel has returned to pre-pandemic levels, many airlines are still plagued by significant delays and cancellations.

Labor Day is here and, despite ongoing flight disruptions and high ticket prices, an estimated 12.6 million Americans will be flying over the three-day holiday weekend, according to data from travel site Hopper.

American Airlines alone estimates 2.5 million customers will board 26,400 scheduled flights through Monday. 

Many of those fliers will face delays and cancellations. On average, 23% of flights in August were delayed from departing US airports, an increase of nearly 30% compared to 2019. And cancellation rates last month were more than double their 2019 rates, as airlines mobilize to address staff shortages, pickets, weather disruptions and other issues.

By 10 a.m. ET on Thursday, American Airlines had already reported 100 delayed flights, according to the website FlightAware, and 23 cancellations. Industrywide, more than 800 flights within, into, or out of the United States have been delayed Thursday morning and 102 canceled.

Analysts don't expect schedules will get back to normal until at least the fall, when demand settles down and new hires have had time to be trained up. 

If you're flying over Labor Day, here's what you need to know about avoiding a travel nightmare, what the airlines owe you if there's a cancellation or delay, and more. 

For more travel tips, here are some great travel gadgets, guidance on renewing your passport online and 19 things to add to your travel checklist. before leaving home.

Why have there been so many delays and cancellations?

Layoffs and contract buyouts during the pandemic have left many airlines short-staffed, fueling ongoing delays and cancellations.

Getty Images

Since Memorial Day, US-based airlines canceled more than 50,000 flights and delayed over a half-million, according to NPR. Delta said it canceled 100 scheduled daily flights in the US and Latin America between July 1 and Aug. 7. Southwest Airlines nixed almost 20,000 summer flights.   
The biggest factor has been that airlines are incredibly short-staffed. When the pandemic slowed air travel to a trickle, many carriers bought out employees' contracts and encouraged older pilots to take early retirement.

As a result, from December 2019 to December 2020, the number of airline workers shrank by at least 114,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Now carriers are clamoring to staff back up, but they're finding it hard to fill positions. 

The shortages extend to ground staff, baggage handlers, gate personnel and other workers, FlightAware spokesperson Kathleen Bangs told CNET. "They did a lot of buyouts during the pandemic. It's a remarkable growth period and they're just back-footed." 

It's particularly acute with pilots because it can take up to five years and cost hundreds of thousands of dollars to train someone to fly a commercial airplane.

"Most airlines are simply not going to be able to realize their capacity plans because there simply aren't enough pilots, at least not for the next five-plus years," United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said in a quarterly earnings call back in April, NBC News reported.

Extreme weather has also added to the problem: Severe thunderstorms have caused multiple delays and flight cancellations, and that's aside from hurricane and wildfire season. Aircraft can fly at lower altitudes to try to avoid storm systems, but that burns more fuel -- a dicey proposition given the high cost of jet fuel. 

How to avoid having your flight delayed or canceled

There isn't much you can do to prevent a delay or cancellation. But there are some common-sense steps that will give you a better shot at making it to your destination -- or at least relaxing at home or in a hotel room, rather than stewing in the airport.

Download your airline's mobile app to keep on top of changes to your flight schedule.

Pavlo Gonchar/Getty Images

Leave extra time for layovers. You might think an hour is plenty of time to get from one gate to another, especially in the same terminal. But if the first leg of your journey is delayed that hour can turn into 30 minutes. And with most airlines closing the plane doors about 15 minutes prior to departure, you could easily miss your connection.

Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL), Denver International Airport (DEN) and Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) top the list of busiest hubs over the Labor Day holiday, according to Hopper.

Don't book a late-night flight. If you miss a connection, most airlines will work diligently to get you on the next available flight. But if you booked the last flight of the day to your destination, that may mean having to wait until morning -- and either pacing through the airport for hours or booking a night in a nearby hotel. 

Download the airline's app on your phone. Opt into flight notifications and start manually checking the status of your flight regularly, at least 24 hours in advance. As soon as you hear your flight has been cut, find out if you've been transferred to another flight.

Monitor the weather at both your departure and arrival airports. Start checking the weather in both places a few days before your flight. Some airlines will actually reschedule your flight in advance of a major weather front at no extra charge. If a storm is on its way, you might consider leaving a few days earlier or later or finding a different route.

Buy travel insurance. Depending on why your flight is canceled or delayed, the airline might not comp any meals, accommodations or transport you're forced to purchase. The payout for travel insurance may not cover all of your expenses, but it will definitely be more than the cost of a policy, typically 5% to 10% of your trip cost.

What to do if your flight is delayed or canceled

Time is of the essence, so be proactive about rescheduling your flight. 

"A lot of the time you can reschedule yourself on the flight of your choice" using the airline's app, said David Slotnick, senior aviation reporter for The Points Guy. "It'll save you a lot of time and aggravation." (Like CNET, The Points Guy is owned by Red Ventures.)

If that's not possible, call the airline. Even if you get sent to an automated system, it may have a call-back function. You can still call if you're already at the airport. Do it while you're in line to talk to an agent and take whichever option is available first.

What does the airline owe you if your flight is canceled?

While some airlines are able to get you booked on a different carrier if your flight is canceled, not all can.

Dmitry Marchenko/Getty Images

In the US, if a flight is canceled because of something that is the airline's fault -- a mechanical issue or a staffing shortage -- the carrier is required to refund your ticket.

"If you get canceled for any reason -- you don't take your flight -- they have to offer you a cash refund," Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg told NPR. "If you'd rather take miles or a different flight, fine. But that's up to you, not them. They've got to give you a refund. That's a basic rule,"  

The Department of Transportation website mandates airlines must also refund the cost of your ticket after a schedule change or significant delay, but the agency hasn't defined what constitutes a "significant delay."

"Whether you are entitled to a refund depends on many factors -- including the length of the delay, the length of the flight and your particular circumstances," according to the DOT website. Whether a refund following a significant delay is warranted is determined "on a case-by-case basis." 

If you don't request a refund, the airline is still responsible for getting you to your destination. But it could be much later than your original flight. Under most circumstances, carriers should provide vouchers for meals and hotels.

Make your plans quickly, though: Airport hotels fill up quickly amid widespread delays and cancellations.

Some airlines will work to get you on another flight with a different airline, Slotnick said, but not every airline has relationships with other carriers. 

What are airlines doing to address delays and cancellations?

Hiring more employees. "All the airlines are doing major hiring initiatives," Slotnick said. "They're rushing to hire pilots and deploy them." They're also trying to improve work conditions for existing workers: In April, Delta announced it would start paying flight attendants during boarding, rather than just once the plane door closes.

The move, a first for a major US airline, is seen as a countermeasure to a unionization push among workers.

Scheduling more flights. Someairlines are boosting service in popular corridors when they can. "They're trying to strike the right balance between adding flights and creating some slack in the system," Slotnick said.

For example, United Airlines recently launched or resumed 30 flights between the US and Europe, its largest expansion ever. Regular flights from Denver to Munich, Chicago to Zurich and New York to Bergen, Norway, are underway, as well as daily service between Boston and London.

When fully operational, United's transatlantic route network will be more than 25% larger than it was in 2019, before COVID-19 cratered air travel.

Some airlines have ramped up their roster of scheduled flights, while others have pared down to avoid having to cancel them later.

James Martin/CNET

Scheduling fewer flights. Otherairlines are going in the opposite direction, reducing their capacity rather than risk being forced to cancel a scheduled flight. JetBlue has already reduced its May routes by almost 10%, Conde Nast Traveler reported, and will likely make similar cuts throughout the summer.

"By reducing our flight schedule for the summer and continuing to hire new crewmembers, we hope to have more breathing room in the system to help ease some of the recent delays and cancellations that we've seen in the industry," a JetBlue spokesperson told the outlet. 

Southwest Airlines, the world's largest low-cost carrier, cut more than 8,000 domestic flights in June "to adjust to capacity," the company told The Business Journals. 

Delta  "temporarily cut" some Labor Day weekend flights from Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport and New York's LaGuardia and John F. Kennedy airports to deal with a large number of airline crew members and air traffic controllers who have already called in sick, The Washington Times reported.

Giving passengers more notice. All the airlines are making a concerted effort to give passengers as much information as possible, Slotnick said, through text updates and other notifications.

"Even a year before the pandemic, airlines were trying to be proactive about informing passengers, even 24 or 48 hours in advance of a possible cancellation," he said.

Offering waivers
United, Delta and other carriers are offering travel waivers to passengers to encourage them to move their flights out of busy time periods. All waiving the usual flight-change fees and some are even foregoing the usual fare difference.

The Department of Transportation has stepped in to hold airlines accountable

On Sept. 1, the U.S. Department of Transportation launched a new website that lets fliers know what they're entitled to when their flight is significantly delayed or canceled. The Aviation Consumer Protection site has a dashboard that compares what policies are regarding rebooking, meal and hotel vouchers and complimentary ground transportation for carriers including Alaska, Allegiant, American, Delta, Frontier, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit and United.

The Transportation Department's Air Consumer Dashboard compares offerings from major carriers.

Department of Transportation

"Passengers deserve transparency and clarity on what to expect from an airline when there is a cancelation or disruption," Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said in a statement. "This dashboard collects that information in one place so travelers can easily understand their rights, compare airline practices, and make informed decisions."

Buttigieg said the goal was to get the airlines to "raise the bar."

"Look, Americans have had experiences with cancellations, delays and poor customer service that just aren't at an acceptable level," he told NPR. "A lot of the airlines are not quite transparent about how and when they'll take care of passengers. "So we're going to put that information out ourselves."

Just knowing that information is out there for air travelers to see has spurred carriers to improve their offerings, Buttigieg added. 

The Department is also collecting comments on a proposed rule requiring airlines to proactively inform passengers about their right to a refund. It would also provide a clearer definition of a "significant change" to a scheduled flight and require airlines to provide non-expiring vouchers to passengers unable to fly because they contracted COVID-19 or other communicable diseases.

The proposal would also mandate carriers that receive pandemic assistance issue those passengers refunds instead of vouchers.

Are any airlines better or worse in terms of cancellations?

In 2021, Delta had the fewest cancellations of any major US airline.

Boarding1Now

Without naming names, Slotnick says that, broadly speaking, low-cost airlines have tighter margins with less slack, so theoretically you're more likely to face a cancellation.

But booking with a big carrier doesn't mean you're immune.

"The regionals have parked a lot of planes because they don't have enough staff," Bangs said. "And a lot of people who book on a major airline don't realize they're actually flying with a smaller carrier."

SkyWest, a smaller airline out of St. George, Utah, subcontracts for Delta, United, American and Alaska Airlines. So does Indiana-based Republic Airways.

Sometimes, bigger is indeed better: Last year, Delta had the best record in cancellation rates, according to The Wall Street Journal's annual airline rankings. The Atlanta-based airline scrubbed 0.6% of its scheduled departures in 2021, a third of the industry average of 1.8%.

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Buying an iphone 11 in 2022 might make sense for crossword buying an iphone 11 in 2022 one word buying an iphone 11 in 2022 what will happen buying an iphone 11 in china buying an iphone 11 outright purchasing an iphone 11 buying an iphone 11 in china buying an iphone without contract when buying an iphone what does unlocked mean buying an iphone 13 pro max buying an engagement ring buying an investment property

Buying an iPhone 11 in 2022 Might Make Sense for You

Buying an iPhone 11 in 2022 Might Make Sense for You

Since the debut of the iPhone 11 in 2019, we've since seen the debut of the iPhone 13 and iPhone 12. And in a few days, we're likely to see the debut of the iPhone 14 at Apple's next event on Sept. 7. The iPhone 11 may be over two years old, but it might still be a good choice, especially since Apple discounted it to $499 last year. While we recommend that you wait for the next Apple event before buying any iPhone at all, especially since prices for current iPhone models will likely decrease afterward, the iPhone 11 does have a lot to like as a phone that's under $500.

For instance, do you mind using an iPhone that feels a bit dated? Or do you think saving several hundred dollars is more important than carrying the latest phone? What about 5G -- how important is that to you? If you're shopping on a budget, the iPhone 11 is still a great choice. Although you'll be missing out on some newer features, the iPhone 11 gives you all the basics you'd want from an iPhone, including battery life that's on par with the iPhone 12, a great dual-lens camera that includes night mode and a processor that's still fast enough for everyday tasks. 

Read more: Here's how the iPhone 11 compares to the iPhone 12 and how the iPhone 13 compares to the iPhone 12.

But if you have some wiggle room in your budget, here are some questions to ask yourself. (For the purposes of this article, I'm going to assume that you are currently using an iPhone.) And if you're still mulling over your decision after that, here's how the iPhone 13 compares to the last five years of iPhones as well as our list of the best iPhones. Plus, check out all the differences between the iPhone 11, 11 Pro and 11 Pro Max.

5G connectivity: iPhone 11 doesn't have 5G. But do you really need it right now?

One of the iPhone 11's biggest missing features compared to the iPhone 13 and iPhone 12 is 5G connectivity. The iPhone 11 is an LTE-only device, and if you don't care for the next-gen wireless tech just yet (service is patchy in the US after all), then the iPhone 11 should suit you just fine. Remember that 5G debuted on the iPhone 12 lineup and getting access to faster bands of 5G depends on where you live, so going for the iPhone 12 makes your purchase more future-proof. 

Angela Lang/CNET

Display quality: You won't get a 120Hz refresh rate on an iPhone 11 (or iPhone 12)

The iPhone 11 uses a crisp LCD screen that refreshes at 60 frames per second, or 60Hz. Apple traded up in the iPhone 12, equipping it with an OLED screen, though it kept the display at 60Hz just like most phones. OLEDs are typically more vibrant than their LCD counterparts, with richer contrast and inkier blacks. If you watch a lot of videos on your iPhone and want a superior viewing experience, an OLED screen might make more sense for you. The iPhone 13 also boasts an OLED panel too, though Apple bumped up the refresh rate for the Pro models to 120Hz. The faster refresh rate will translate to smoother, snappier scrolling through apps and websites. 

Apple's Wallet app will be able to store driver's licenses in iOS 15. 

Screenshot by CNET

Software support: How long will the iPhone 11 get iOS software updates? 

Apple's latest operating system, iOS 15, is supported on many older iPhones, and the oldest is the 2015 iPhone 6S (Here's how to download the new OS, but you may want to wait.) Based on that and some quick mental math, we can deduce that Apple plans to provide iPhone support for up to six years from launch. As a result, with the iPhone 11, unveiled in 2019, you can rest comfortably knowing that you can expect updates through 2025. 

Read more: iOS 15's biggest new features: FaceTime, Apple Wallet and Notifications get new tricks

Durability and water resistance: How durable do you want your iPhone to be?

If you do opt for the iPhone 11, you will miss out on a few durability features that are available on the newer iPhone models. One of the iPhone 12's big improvements is the material of its display. Apple calls it "ceramic shield" glass. Made by Corning, the ceramic shield glass covering the phone's display is apparently harder than most metals. Indeed, we can confirm that the iPhone 12's ceramic shield is tough. Our iPhone 12 drop tests show it protected the hardware from drops as high as 9 feet. (CNET's iPhone 12 Mini drop tests yielded similar results.) The iPhone 13 also has the same ceramic shield glass on its display.

So if you're a big klutz and are prone to slips and drops, springing for the iPhone 13 or iPhone 12 is a wise move (or just get a really nice iPhone case). Keep in mind, the iPhone 11 isn't a delicate darling, either. It also survived CNET's drop and water tests and earned a CNET Editors' Choice Award. You can read our iPhone 11 review for more details. 

Read more: Farewell iPhone case: The case for the caseless phone

Price and budget: How much do you want to spend on an iPhone?

As I said earlier, Apple is selling the nearly two-year-old iPhone 11 for $300 less now than when it first launched, making it a great choice for those shopping on a budget. But, as also mentioned previously, the iPhone 11 could become even cheaper once Apple debuts its 2022 line of iPhone models. Also of note, the current iPhone 12 and 12 Mini might come down in price and hit that $499 level, as typically Apple lowers the price of existing iPhone models once the newest model goes on sale.

It's also worth considering carrier deals from Verizon, T-Mobile and AT&T, all of which may subsidize the price of an iPhone in exchange for committing to a cellular service plan. Last year the three companies offered hundreds of dollars off with those contracts, and possibly pay off the phone entirely with a device trade-in. Just keep in mind that there are plenty of caveats to those deals, like commitments ranging from 24 to 36 months.

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Apple's getting ready for a Sept. 7 event , which is very likely to be the moment we learn about the company's next iPhone line. 

The newest version, expected to be called the iPhone 14, is rumored to include an always-on display similar to what's on the Apple Watch now, allowing for constant glanceable information without ruining battery life.

Apple hasn't really said what it plans to announce at its event, only sending out a cryptic invitation to the press, with an Apple logo seemingly set in a night sky, suggesting potential camera improvements or last year's rumored satellite emergency calling. The image looks like something we might see from the James Webb Space Telescope, whose stunning photos have already begun changing how we view the cosmos since first being released earlier this summer. In its announcement, Apple included the teaser words "Far out." 

Read more: Apple Makes 'Far Out' iPhone Launch Event Official For Sept. 7

The iPhone 14 launch will also mark the 15th year since the original iPhone's debut, in June of 2007. Back then, the device wasn't the sure hit it is today. Many tech industry watchers were enthusiastic about Apple's prospects of course, but it hadn't proven it can build reliable phone technology before then. It was also up against massive competitors such as Microsoft, Palm and Research in Motion, whose Blackberry devices ruled the business world at the time. Within a decade though, Apple -- as well as Google's popular Android software -- had bested all three companies.

While the iPhone will be a key product we see at Apple's event this year, and likely what most people focus their attention on, the company's expected to hold other events later this year with other devices to show off. Those include new Mac computers with upgraded chips and new iPads.

Read more: Everything We Know So Far About the iPhone 14

When is the Apple event?

Apple's online-only event will be Sept. 7 at 10 a.m. PT, which is 1 p.m. ET, 6 p.m. BST and 3 a.m. AEST. (Sorry, Australia.) Here's a handy time zone converter to help find what time it'll be where you are.

Where can I watch Apple's livestream?

You'll be able to stream Apple's event straight from the company's website. Meanwhile, we'll be reporting on the event live here at CNET.

What can we expect, besides the iPhone 14 launch?

Apple's digital events are fast paced and slickly produced. And even though Apple's now trying its hand at in-person events again as coronavirus pandemic-era health concerns slowly recede, the company still seems to be applying what it's learned about how to make its events more compelling. During its last event, the Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) in June, Apple held a livestream but then offered in-person demos for the press afterward. 

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Does High Inflation Impact Your Student Loans? For Most Borrowers, Yes

Does High Inflation Impact Your Student Loans? For Most Borrowers, Yes

This story is part of Recession Help Desk, CNET's coverage of how to make smart money moves in an uncertain economy.

Despite a slight slowdown in July, inflation remains sky high as prices continue climbing, making everything from the groceries you buy to the rent you pay each month more expensive. But how does inflation impact student loan borrowers?

The answer will vary depending on what type of loans you hold -- federal or private -- and whether or not you're eligible for loan forgiveness. In a general sense, however, inflation will make it harder for borrowers to repay existing debt and will continue to drive up rates on private student loans.

The current pause on federal student loan repayments expires at the end of August. The moratorium was extended six times since the start of the pandemic and has offered borrowers temporary relief. Yet when repayments begin, high prices can make it more difficult for borrowers to restart monthly student loan payments.

How exactly does inflation impact the student loan debt you hold? We sat down with student loans expert Mark Kantrowitz, author of How to Appeal for More College Financial Aid, to discuss the specifics of what inflation means for student loan holders.

The role inflation plays in student loans

The Federal Reserve has raised the federal funds rate four times in an effort to slow rampant inflation. But while prices haven't dropped from record-high levels, these hikes in the federal funds rate have indirectly led to more burdensome interest rates on consumer products, such as credit cards, mortgages and loans.

The Fed's rate increases won't impact any fixed-rate student loans you currently hold, for example, federal loans. But private loans with adjustable-rates (interest rates that can rise and fall along with the economy) may see their rates increase, making them more expensive for borrowers to repay.

If your wages were to rise alongside inflation at the same rate or higher, it could make paying back your debt a little bit easier and counter higher interest rates. "Inflation dictates that a dollar ten years ago is worth more than a dollar today. So, as long as your wages are rising along with inflation, the debt for a loan borrowed in the past will hold less value today," said Kantrowitz. 

However, average wage increases are not keeping up with inflation. As of June, wages have only increased 5.1% over the past 12 months, making it more difficult for borrowers to chip away at their debt on top of covering daily expenses.

Here's a breakdown on how inflation might impact you depending on your loan type and whether or not you're still in school:

If you hold federal student loans: 

Federal student loans are always fixed-rate loans, so the interest rate will stay the same over its lifetime.   

If you hold a federal student loan, inflation could work in your favor because it effectively devalues your debt, but that only helps if your wages kept up or surpassed the inflation rate. 

If, like for most Americans, your wages haven't increased substantially and your budget is stretched even thinner than before, this devalued debt won't help you -- and you might even find it more difficult to repay your loans when the federal loan repayment freeze ends.

If you hold private student loans: 

Private student loans can be either variable or fixed rate, and payments for either type of private loan have not been on hold during the pandemic. 

For those with fixed-rate private loans, the interest rate of your existing student debt won't go up. However, since inflation is making everyday purchases pricier, you might find yourself with less cash overall to set aside for paying off debt.  

If you have adjustable-rate loans, your interest rates could definitely rise -- and may have already. As inflation rates go up, interest rates usually follow. Variable-rate private loans holders could see even higher interest rates in the future.

If you're a new borrower in 2022:

Both federal and private student loan interest rates will be higher for the 2022-23 academic year, Kantrowitz said. The new federal student loan interest rates for the 2022-23 school year are as follows:

• Undergraduate loans: 4.99%
• Graduate Direct Unsubsidized loans: 6.54%
• PLUS loans: 7.54%

This is a big jump up for students. For reference, last year an undergraduate federal student loan had an interest rate of 3.73% -- around 1.25% lower than the rate for the coming academic year. 

Private student loan rates have also increased. Fixed-rate private student loans range from 3.22% to 13.95%, and variable-rate private student loans range from 1.29% to 12.99%, according to Bankrate, which is owned by the same parent company as CNET.

Will inflation make loan repayment more difficult after the federal payment pause ends?

Kantrowitz said he predicts that the student loan repayment pause will be extended again, with renewed payments beginning after the 2022 midterms. Whether or not the student loan freeze is prolonged could hinge on the White House's decision on widespread federal student loan forgiveness. In any case, since the federal payment pause is set to expire in a couple weeks and no official announcements have been made, it's best to prepare for repayment now.

For many, repaying student loan debt in a time of high inflation is a real concern. According to the Student Debt Crisis Center, out of 23,532 borrowers, 92% of those who were fully employed are concerned about affording payments in the face of skyrocketing inflation.  

"I personally have not been able to save for student loan repayment, and I don't think I could have given the growing disparity between wages and the national cost of living," said Jonathan Casson, a recent graduate of Cornell University.

If you're worried about repaying your student debt, here are some tips to plan ahead:

How can you prepare to repay federal loans?

1. Look into income-driven repayment plans

The government offers four income-driven repayment plans that can help make monthly payments more affordable for borrowers who need to keep payment sizes small. Each IDR plan caps payments at between 10% to 20% of your discretionary income (income after taxes and necessities are paid), and forgives your loan balance after 20 or 25 years of payment. Eligibility for these plans is dependent upon family size and discretionary income. 

2. Check if you're eligible for loan forgiveness

If you're a teacher, first responder, public servant or government worker, you may be eligible for federal student loan forgiveness under the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program. You must be in a qualifying position, hold eligible federal student loans and have made 120 qualifying payments to receive forgiveness (each paused month during the federal payment freeze counts as one qualifying payment). 

The PSLF has temporarily expanded its benefits to include forgiveness for more federal loan types and IDR plans, and could make some applicants now eligible who had been denied loan cancellation in the past. The expanded forgiveness waiver application is due by Oct. 31, so it's important to find out if you're eligible now. In some cases, you may need to consolidate your loans into federal Direct Loans, a process that can take 45 days. 

While your monthly payment may not change if you haven't reached the 120 payment goal yet, you'll at least be a step closer toward student loan forgiveness.

3. Refinance private loans

With many interest rate hikes expected this year, refinancing your private adjustable-rate student loans into fixed-rate student loans could help you save hundreds to thousands in interest -- and may even reduce your monthly payment. You should only refinance if you receive better payment terms or a lower rate. Otherwise it generally won't be worth the hassle and could cost you more in interest.

4. Review your budget

If a student loan payment is not feasible with your current budget, see if there are any ways to cut expenses or pay down high-interest debt now to free up funds. While adjusting your budget may seem daunting, there are multiple resources and apps to help you calculate and identify expenses you can reduce or eliminate. 

5. Consider a side hustle

A part-time gig outside of your primary job may help supplement your income as inflation skyrockets. Currently, 31% of American adults have a side hustle, according to a 2022 Bankrate survey. Having an additional source of money can help bridge a gap in your budget and offer you a bit of breathing room.

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