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Inflation, Interest Rates and Jobs: How Today's Economy Compares to Recessions of the Past

Inflation, Interest Rates and Jobs: How Today's Economy Compares to Recessions of the Past

This story is part of Recession Help Desk, CNET's coverage of how to make smart money moves in an uncertain economy.

What's happening

There's still debate about whether the US economy is officially headed into a recession, but the economic downturn is causing widespread stress.

Why it matters

Periods of financial volatility and market decline can drive people to panic and make costly mistakes with their money.

What's next

Examining what's happening now -- and comparing it with the past -- can help investors and consumers decide what to do next.

Facing the aftershocks of a rough economy in the first half of 2022, with sky-high inflation, rising mortgage rates, soaring gas prices and a bear market for stocks, leading indicators of a recession have moderated slightly in the past month. That could mean the economic downturn won't be as long or brutal as expected. 

Still, the majority of Americans are feeling the sting of rising prices and anxiety over jobs. The country has experienced two consecutive quarters of economic slowdown -- the barometer for measuring a recession -- even though the National Bureau of Economic Research hasn't made the "official" recession call.  

At a time like this, we should consider what happens in a recession, look at the data to determine whether we're in one and try to maintain some historical perspective. It's also worth pointing out that down periods are temporary and that, over time, both the stock market and the US economy bounce back. 

I don't mean to minimize the gravity and hardship of the times. But it can be useful to review how the economy has behaved in the past to avoid irrational or impulsive money moves. For this, we can largely blame recency bias, our inclination to view our latest experiences as the most valid. It's what led many to flee the stock market in 2008 when the S&P 500 crashed, thereby locking in losses and missing out on the subsequent bull market. 

"It's our human tendency to project the immediate past into the future indefinitely," said Daniel Crosby, chief behavioral officer at Orion Advisor Solutions and author of The Laws of Wealth. "It's a time-saving shortcut that works most of the time in most contexts but can be woefully misapplied in markets that tend to be cyclical," Crosby told me via email. 

Before you make a knee-jerk reaction to your portfolio, give up on a home purchase or lose it over job insecurity, consider these chart-based analyses from the last three decades. We hope this data-driven overview will offer a broader context and some impetus for making the most of your money today.

What do we know about inflation? 

Historical inflation rate by year

Macrotrends.net

Current conditions: The US is experiencing the highest rate of inflation in decades, driven by global supply chain disruptions, the injection of federal stimulus dollars and a surge in consumer spending. In real dollars, the 8.5% rise in consumer prices over the past year is adding about $400 more per month to household budgets. 

The context: Policymakers consider 2% per year to be a "normal" inflation target. The country's still experiencing over four times that figure. The 9.1% annual rate in July was the largest jump in inflation since 1980 when the inflation rate hit 13.5% following the prior decade's oil crisis and high government spending on defense, social services, health care, education and pensions. Back then, the Federal Reserve increased rates to stabilize prices and, by the mid-1980s, inflation fell to below 5%.

The upside: As overall inflation rates rise, the silver lining might be increased rates of return on personal savings. Bank accounts are starting to offer more attractive yields, while I bonds -- federally backed accounts that more or less track inflation -- are attracting savers, too. 

What's happening with mortgage rates? 

30-year fixed-rate mortgage averages in the US

Current conditions: As the Federal Reserve continues its rate-hike campaign to cool spending and try to tame inflation, the rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has grown significantly. In June, the average rate jumped annually by nearly 3 percentage points to almost 6%. In real dollars, that means that after a 20% down payment on a new home (let's use the average sale price of $429,000), a buyer would roughly need an extra $7,300 a year to afford the mortgage. Since then, rates have cooled a bit, even dipping back down below 5%. What happens next with rates depends on where inflation goes from here.

The context: Three years ago, homebuyers faced similar borrowing costs and, at the time, rates were characterized as "historically low." And if we think borrowing money is expensive today, let's not forget the early 1980s when the Federal Reserve jacked up rates to never-before-seen levels due to hyperinflation. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in 1981 topped 16%. 

The upside: For homebuyers, a potential benefit to rising rates is downward pressure on home prices, which could cause the housing market to cool slightly. As the cost to borrow continues to increase with mortgages becoming more expensive, homes could experience fewer offers and prices would slow in pace. In fact, nearly one in five sellers dropped their asking price during late April through late May, according to Redfin. 

On the flip side, less homebuyers mean more renters. Rent prices have skyrocketed, and housing activists are asking the White House to take action on what they call a "national emergency."

What about the stock market? 

Dow Jones Industrial Average stock market index for the past 30 years

Macrotrends.net

Current conditions: Year-to-date, the Dow Jones Industrial Average -- a composite of 30 of the most well-known US stocks such as Apple, Microsoft and Coca-Cola -- is about 8.5% below where it started in January. Relative to the broader market, technology stocks are down much more. The Nasdaq is off almost 19% since the start of the year. 

The benchmark S&P 500 stock index hit lows in June that marked a more than 20% drop from January, which brought us officially into a bear market. Since then, it's bounced back up a little, but some experts warn that a current bear market rally is at odds with expected earnings and we could see even lower stock prices in the near future.

The context: Stock price losses in 2022 are not nearly as swift and steep as what we saw in March 2020, when panic over the pandemic drove the DJIA down by 26% in roughly four trading days. The market reversed course the following month and began a bull run lasting more than two years, as the lockdown drove massive consumption of products and services tied to software, health care, food and natural gas. 

Prior to that, in 2008 and 2009, a deep and pervasive crisis in housing and financial services sank the Dow by nearly 55% from its 2007 high. But by fall 2009, it was off to one of its longest winning streaks in financial history. 

The upside: Given the cyclical nature of the stock market, now is not the time to jump ship.* "Times that are down, you at least want to hold and/or think about buying," said Adam Seessel, author of Where the Money Is. "Over the last 100 years, American stocks have been the surest way to grow wealthy slowly over time," he told me during a recent So Money podcast.

*One caveat: If you're closer to or living in retirement and your portfolio has taken a sizable hit, it may be worth talking to a professional and reviewing your selection of funds to ensure that you're not taking on too much risk. Target-date funds, a popular investment vehicle in many retirement accounts that auto-adjust for risk as you age, may be too risky for pre- or early retirees. 

What does unemployment tell us? 

US unemployment rates

Current conditions: The July jobs report shows the unemployment rate holding steady, slightly dropping to 3.5%. The Great Resignation of 2021, where millions of workers quit their jobs over burnout, as well as unsatisfactory wages and benefits, left employers scrambling to fill positions. However, that could be changing as economic challenges deepen: More job losses are likely on the horizon, and an increasing number of workers are concerned with job security. 

The context: The rebound in theunemployment rate is an economic hallmark of the past two years. But the ongoing interest rate hike may weigh on corporate profits, leading to more layoffs and hiring freezes. For context, during the Great Recession, in a two-year span from late 2007 to 2009, the unemployment rate rose sharply from about 5% to 10%. 

Today, the tech sector is one to watch. After benefiting from rapid growth led by consumer demand in the pandemic, companies like Google and Facebook may be in for a "correction." Layoffs.fyi, a website that tracks downsizing at tech startups, logged close to 37,000 layoffs in Q2, more than triple from the same period last year. 

The upside: If you're worried about losing your job because your employer may be more vulnerable in a recession, document your wins so that when review season arrives, you're ready to walk your manager through your top-performing moments. Offer strategies for how to weather a potential slowdown. All the while, review your reserves to see how far you can stretch savings in case you're out of work. Keep in mind that in the previous recession, it took an average of eight to nine months for unemployed Americans to secure new jobs.

§

What's happening

Home prices overall are up by 37% since March 2020.

Why it matters

Surging home prices and higher interest rates make monthly mortgage payments less affordable.

What's next

Rising mortgage rates will make borrowing money more expensive, which will lessen competition to buy homes and eventually flatten prices.

Home prices continued to skyrocket in March as buyers tried to stay ahead of rising mortgage rates. 

Prices increased by 20.6% this March compared to last year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measures of US home prices. This was the highest year-over-year increase in March for home prices in more than 35 years of data. Seven in 10 homes sold for more than their asking price, according to CoreLogic. 

Out of the 20 cities tracked by the 20-city composite index, Tampa, Phoenix and Miami saw the highest year-over-year gains in March. Tampa saw the greatest increase, with an almost 35% increase in home prices year-over-year. All 20 cities experienced double-digit price growth for the year ending in March.

The strongest price growth was seen in the south and southeast, with both regions posting almost 30% gains in March. Seventeen of the 20 metro areas also saw acceleration in their annual gains since February. 

"Those of us who have been anticipating a deceleration in the growth rate of US home prices will have to wait at least a month longer," said Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, in the release. "The strength of the Composite indices suggests very broad strength in the housing market, which we continue to observe."

Since the start of the pandemic in March 2020, home prices overall are up by 37%. The current surge in home prices is a result of tight competition between buyers in a low-inventory market as they attempt to lock in lower mortgage rates before rates jump even higher throughout the year, as experts predict they will.

If you're considering buying a new home -- or are actively in the market -- the news isn't all bad. Interest rates are at their highest point in more than 40 years, and one potential benefit of that may, eventually, be downward pressure on home prices. As it becomes increasingly expensive to borrow money, fewer people will seek to do so, and homes for sale may receive fewer offers leading to, eventually, lower prices. In fact, nearly one in five sellers lowered their asking price during a four-week period in May and April, according to Redfin.

"Mortgages are becoming more expensive as the Federal Reserve has begun to ratchet up interest rates, suggesting that the macroeconomic environment may not support extraordinary home price growth for much longer," said Lazzara. "Although one can safely predict that price gains will begin to decelerate, the timing of the deceleration is a more difficult call."

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Source

'Westworld' Season 4, Episode 7 Recap: 'Metanoia'

'Westworld' Season 4, Episode 7 Recap: 'Metanoia'

The second-to-last episode of Westworld season 4 aired on Sunday, setting the stage for next week's finale. It caps off with a surprising twist -- this time involving Christina -- our brunette Dolores look-alike whose story took yet another turn.

In other news, this season's big bad, Chalores, has been replaced by her second-in-command. Let's run through what else happened in episode 7, including who's still standing on both sides as we head into the final episode.

A door to The Sublime

The episode starts with Bernard and Maeve pulling up to the futuristic Hoover Dam facility we saw in episode 1 -- the one William acquired with help from our first, nameless fly victim of the season. But eventually, the show reveals we are actually somewhere else… in The Sublime. When Bernard convened with Akecheta in The Sublime back in episode 3, he viewed these events before they took place (or it's one of the many paths he viewed that could potentially happen, I guess).

Bernard reveals to Maeve -- a version of her he's whipped up -- that "the hydroelectric server farm" they're looking at houses The Sublime. (Also called The Valley Beyond, The Sublime is a digital plane of existence we saw a bunch of Westworld hosts enter in season 2, leaving their physical bodies behind. Maeve's daughter is one of them.) In season 2, Dolores sent The Sublime -- and those in it -- somewhere out of reach. Turns out, it was here. Bernard uses the key he possesses to open the door.

Bernard tells Maeve that he's been down every possible path, and the outcome is always the same: extinction for both hosts and humans. He tells her they could escape that fate by uploading themselves to The Sublime. Maeve takes him up on the offer, and Bernard asks if that's what she would really say, or if that's just his impression of her.

Then, those events pretty much repeat in the real world (with the addition of some more on-screen action involving a big red robot). Bernard and Maeve arrive at the facility, where Bernard once again reveals it holds The Sublime and opens the door using his key. But he doesn't tell Maeve the truth about their ill-fated quest. Instead, he says that "If we get to her tower, we can save them as well as ourselves."

Chalores is shutting down the cities

Next, we spy Chalores, host William and a host version of Caleb. Like the last version of Caleb who got his neck snapped so unkindly last week, this one knows his daughter, Frankie, is alive. Chalores is a nickname for Charlotte Hale. In the past, Dolores made copies of herself -- the "self" that exists in her pearl -- and put one into a host version of Hale.

Chalores looked incredible in this episode (and has all season).

John Johnson/HBO

Chalores tells William to give them a minute, and then she reveals to Caleb that she's shutting down "the cities." (Does this mean there are more than the one we've seen?) She plans to stick humans in cold storage, mirroring how the hosts in Westworld were treated. She leaves Caleb in his confinement and tells a surprised William she's calling the human world quits because of the host/outlier issue. "If I don't do this today, there'll be less of us tomorrow," she says.

An already stressed-out host William is not happy about this news. Later, we see him visit human William again. In a long, icy spiel, human William tells his host doppelgänger that "culture doesn't survive, cockroaches do." He tells his host counterpart that if he could, he'd pull the plug on the whole world. "Only one of us needs to do what must be done," he tells the host. Host William says he understands, then stabs him.

'Dolores. Please.'

In this episode, Teddy confirms something many have probably suspected from the start: Christina is Dolores. But then the show piles on a new mystery: the version of Christina/Dolores we've been seeing in Hale's new world this season isn't actually there in the flesh. I'm still trying to wrap my head around this one.

The "Christina equals Dolores" reveal comes relatively early on in the episode. Teddy tells Christina that he and she are "reflections of the people who made us." He then calls her Dolores. At this point, I'm still viewing her as being the Dolores robot from last season, with a memory-wiped mind courtesy of the Rehoboam machine. After learning from Teddy that her kind is less susceptible to death, she gets into a bath, drowns and instantly regains consciousness.

Later, Christina pays a visit to Olympiad Entertainment, where she uses her storytelling abilities to get the human writers to destroy their "stories" (putting what we've learned from past episodes together, I'm pretty sure these stories are the "pre-scripted loops" humans are traveling in). We see Christina and Teddy wander through Olympiad at the same time as Stubbs and Frankie. Christina and Teddy walk through a doorway, and then we see Stubbs and Frankie emerge a second later out of the same doorway. Strange. Shouldn't the good guys have bumped into each other?

Near the end of the episode, chaos reigns outside (more on that later), and Christina/Dolores tries to intervene. Teddy tells Christina that people can't see her. Christina asks why, and he reluctantly gives it up: "You're not in this world," he says, "It's real, but you're not."

Caleb and Frankie reunite

After Maeve and Bernard regroup with C/Frankie, C's girlfriend Odina and Stubbs at the abandoned '20s theme park, the squad is ready to enter Chalores' city.

Once there, they split up -- Odina grabs a boat, Bernard and Maeve set out to confront Chalores at her tower, and Frankie and Stubbs head to Caleb at Olympiad. Bernard reveals to Stubbs that Stubbs isn't going to make it.

Aurora Perrineau (Frankie) and Luke Hemsworth (Stubbs).

 John Johnson/HBO

Thanks to Christina/Dolores' intervention, Caleb makes it out of his holding cell before Stubbs and C/Frankie arrive. Once they do, a traumatized Caleb ambushes them, locking Stubbs in the confined space and pinning Frankie up against a wall. But Caleb realizes that she's his real daughter soon enough, and the reunion is sweet. This long-awaited scene didn't disappoint.

A showdown between Maeve and Chalores

We've known since episode 5 that Chalores' plan for her kind is for them to eventually "transcend" -- undergo a procedure where they abandon their host bodies and, as she says in this episode, "evolve into the species that we were meant to become." Their pearls (aka, their minds) are taken out of their heads and placed at the top of tall, white machines. In the latest episode, she sends a message to the hosts that it's time to ditch their current bodies for good.

Maeve and Bernard approach Chalores in her tower, and they split up. But before they do, Bernard admits to Maeve what he's been hiding from her -- "No matter what we do, we can't win," he says. "There's no way to save this world. Everyone here is going to die. But we can save one tiny part of it." He asks Maeve if she's still willing to fight, and she shows him a small smile before continuing on.

Maeve finds Chalores about to transcend -- a drone host holding a whirring device near her head. Chalores grabs the device and she and Maeve battle it out. They tumble outside and continue to fight in shallow water. Then Maeve is shot in the head by host William.  Next, the host turns on his creator, offering just a few words before also shooting Chalores in the head.

We see Bernard, who's up in Chalores' tower and recording himself speaking on what looks like a tablet. He cryptically says, "If you choose to give her that choice, you can't miss. Reach with your left hand." By the end of this episode, we still don't know who the message is for.

Host William arrives and shoots Bernard in the head. He also rejigs Chalores' sound-producing tower, causing "every man and woman and child -- host and human -- to fight until no one remains but the cockroaches." Given that the humans are controlled by the sounds, he must have ordered the humans to turn on the hosts.

Who's left standing

The show pivots to Frankie, Stubbs and Caleb, and we see people around them begin to fight each other violently. The three of them manage to escape the frenzy, but a bullet wounds Frankie.

On the other side of the fight, host William is pretty much our new big bad as we head into the finale.

Lingering questions

• In last week's episode, Frankie caught on to Bernard's attempts to copy her and her friends using tech Chalores put in the '20s theme park. (He didn't deny it… or explain why.) This, combined with the fact that the door to The Sublime is sitting wide open has me thinking -- are copies of some humans (maybe those who visited the park) somehow going to end up in The Sublime?

• How is Teddy back this season? At first, I thought he must have been a host created by Chalores, like William. But now it seems like he may not physically exist in Chalores' new world either.

• Where did Maya, the roommate, go?

• Is Bernard really gone? It seems like no one can actually die on this show, but Bernard's exit seemed more final than, say, Maeve's. We see him follow Charlie, his son as part of his backstory, through a door. We also hear his voice repeat what he said to Akecheta in the Sublime: "In every scenario, I die…" It seems to nail home that he was making a real sacrifice by carrying through with the plan.

---

Source

Tags:

• Westworld Season 4 Episode 4 Review
• Season 2 Episode 4 Westworld
• Westworld Season 4 Episode 5
• Westworld Season 4 Episode 3
• Westworld Season 4 Explained
• Westworld Season 4 Episode 8
• Westworld Season 4
• Westworld Season 1

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How to get your drone license (and legally make money)

How to get your drone license (and legally make money)

Aerial photography. Real estate tours. Drone burrito delivery.

Imagine the money you could make (and fun you could have!) if you flew for profit.

Sadly, drone businesses aren't legal in the United States unless the government makes an exception for you -- or unless you get your own drone license under the FAA's brand-new rules.

Starting Monday, August 29, you can apply for your very own license by passing a multiple-choice test and paying a small fee. No experience necessary!

What, you mean I can't just sell my drone photos already?

Nope! You could get fined $1,100 (or more) for operating your unmanned aerial system (UAS) for business purposes without FAA approval.

What is a Remote Pilot Certificate?

It's the official name for the drone license I've been talking about. With it, you can legally fly drones with intention of making a profit -- either by selling the footage, delivering goods and everything in between. You still have to follow a lot of restrictions when you fly...but more on those in a bit.

Prosumer camera drones like the popular DJI Phantom start at around $500 -- but the sky's the limit on price.

Joshua Goldman/CNET

What if I'm just flying for fun?

You don't need the certificate...but you do still need to register your drone if it weighs over half a pound (0.55lb to be precise).

Oh, but if you're a drone racer -- weaving through obstacles with a nifty set of first-person-view glasses on your head -- you'll still need that Remote Pilot Certificate. At least that's what the FAA tells Forbes.

OK, I want to make money. What do I need to get my license?

• Be at least 16 years old
• Have a valid government-issued picture ID with your name, address and signature
• Make an appointment to take the knowledge test at a test center near you
• Pay $150 to the testing firm
• Study
• Pass the test
• Wait up to 48 hours for your test score to get uploaded
• Apply for your Remote Pilot Certificate (using the code from your successful test as proof)
• Complete a TSA background check
• Print out a temporary Remote Pilot Certificate (while you wait for the real one to be delivered by mail)
• Register your drone (maybe do this first?) and start flying!

OK, that does sound like a lot. Let's break it down.

How do I get an appointment for a Remote Pilot Certificate?

You need to call, email or submit an online request form with one of the two companies supervising the test -- not the test center.

CATS (Computer Assisted Testing Service):

• 1-800-947-4228, then press 3 (Monday to Friday, 5:30 a.m. PT to 5 p.m. PT, Saturday to Sunday 7 a.m. PT to 3:30 p.m. PT)
• Online registration and payment (CATS calls you back within 24 hours to schedule)

PSI (formerly LaserGrade):

• 1-800-211-2753, then press 1 twice (Monday to Friday, 5 a.m. PT to 5 p.m. PT, Saturday 5 a.m. PT to 2 p.m. PT)
• examschedule@psionline.com (PSI replies within two business hours)
• Online request form (PSI replies within two business hours)

According to testing centers we called, CATS and PSI handle pretty much everything, including assigning you a test center and accepting your $150 payment.

The DJI Phantom 4 taking flight.

CNET

How long is the waiting list?

In the San Francisco Bay Area, it's not too bad as of August 26. One testing center told us they were booked for two weeks, another said they had openings later in the week.

Is there a testing center near me?

Probably! There are 686 of them across the United States. Check for yourself in the FAA's full, official list of test centers (PDF).

You'll need to call CATS or PSI to get your appointment, though. While the FAA's website says you can just walk in, testing centers in the San Francisco Bay Area told us we needed to arrange everything with CATS or PSI first.

How hard is the test?

You get two hours to answer 60 multiple-choice questions, and you only need to answer 70 percent of them correctly to pass! (You can totally miss 18 questions and still succeed.)

But these aren't exactly easy questions. You'll probably need to study.

Oh yeah? How hard can the questions be?

While monitoring the Cooperstown CTAF you hear an aircraft announce that they are midfield left downwind to RWY 13. Where would the aircraft be relative to the runway? (Refer to FAA-CT-8080-2G, Figure 26, area 2.)

A. The aircraft is East.

B. The aircraft is South.

C. The aircraft is West.

That's just one of the FAA's sample questions. Find more here (PDF).

What's the best way to prepare for the test?

The FAA actually offers a free two-hour training course (register here first) to get you up to speed, plus an 87-page study guide (PDF).

But you may need more help than that, because the FAA's course materials don't explain some of the simplest concepts in plain English.

For instance, would you believe you can answer the sample question above without looking at a map? I didn't figure it out until I found this third-party study guide by drone manufacturer 3DR.

I passed the test! Where do I apply for the actual certificate?

• Register here first (pick Applicant) and fill out your personal information. (You can ignore the Airman Certificate Number and Date of Issuance fields)
• Log into the site using your new username and password
• Apply for the certificate here; pick Pilot from the first dropdown menu, then click on the Remote Pilot certification

If you get lost, here's a complete set of instructions.

The Yuneeq Typhoon H drone.

Joshua Goldman/CNET

Now that I've got my certificate, I can fly anywhere, anytime, yes?

Not so much -- as you'll see when you study, there are a lot of rules (PDF) about when and where you can fly your drone.

Unless you get a 107 waiver (and you need to apply for those months in advance), you can't fly:

• At night
• Over people
• Higher than 400 feet (unless you're within 400 feet of a building; skyscraper climbing is OK)
• Further away than you can see with your naked eye
• At speeds over 100 miles per hour
• From a moving vehicle (or inside a covered stationary vehicle)
• Within five miles of an airport -- unless you clear it with air traffic control using this tool at the FAA's website.

Also, you need to register your drone (if it weighs between 0.55 and 55 pounds), do pre-flight checks before you fly and report any accidents that hurt people or do $500 worth of damage to property.

What if my drone weighs more than 55 pounds?

You can't do it with a drone license, or even a 107 waiver. Only a 333 exemption (which are hard to get, can take a long time and generally require a real pilot's license to fly) can let you pilot something that heavy.

What if my company already has a Section 333 Exemption?

Lucky you! But in many cases, you can't actually fly a drone for profit under the 333 unless you're a certified pilot. The Remote Pilot Certificate is another option.

What if I've already got a pilot's license?

If you want your Remote Pilot Certificate, you can actually skip the knowledge test and take the online training course instead. You'll still need to fill out a form, make an in-person appointment and have completed a flight review within the last two years, so it's not necessarily any easier.

Here's a step-by-step guide for existing pilots.

Could I really start a drone burrito delivery service?

Yes, the FAA says package delivery is OK -- but it'd be tough! Particularly given the rule about needing to keep the drone within eyesight, and the one about drones needing to weigh 55 pounds or less. It'd probably be easier to just hand someone their food.

How about a journalist covering breaking news stories?

That could be tough, too. You can't fly over people without a waiver, and the FAA says those will take months. But if you're not reporting live, or not directly over people... the FAA says media companies can do it.

What if I have awesome video goggles and a camera on the drone? Do I really need to watch it with my actual eyes?

Someone needs to: either you, or a second person who can act as a visual observer. Them's the rules!

Which drone should I buy?

If you've never flown before, buy a toy drone. Not kidding -- you'll learn the basic motor skills without any risk of hurting people or turning a $1,000+ aerial camera into scrap. Then, pick one of our top-rated prosumer drones that matches your needs and budget.

Is that it?

So far, so good...but there's still a lot to think about. Maybe you'll want to insure your drone against damage, and yourself against liability? You'll definitely want to practice flying and camera skills, and you'll need to figure out how to convince potential clients that you're right for the job.

Lastly, know that your Remote Pilot Certificate is only good for two years. You'll need to pass another knowledge test once that's done.

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Source

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How to get your drone license (and legally make money)

How to get your drone license (and legally make money)

Aerial photography. Real estate tours. Drone burrito delivery.

Imagine the money you could make (and fun you could have!) if you flew for profit.

Sadly, drone businesses aren't legal in the United States unless the government makes an exception for you -- or unless you get your own drone license under the FAA's brand-new rules.

Starting Monday, August 29, you can apply for your very own license by passing a multiple-choice test and paying a small fee. No experience necessary!

What, you mean I can't just sell my drone photos already?

Nope! You could get fined $1,100 (or more) for operating your unmanned aerial system (UAS) for business purposes without FAA approval.

What is a Remote Pilot Certificate?

It's the official name for the drone license I've been talking about. With it, you can legally fly drones with intention of making a profit -- either by selling the footage, delivering goods and everything in between. You still have to follow a lot of restrictions when you fly...but more on those in a bit.

Prosumer camera drones like the popular DJI Phantom start at around $500 -- but the sky's the limit on price.

Joshua Goldman/CNET

What if I'm just flying for fun?

You don't need the certificate...but you do still need to register your drone if it weighs over half a pound (0.55lb to be precise).

Oh, but if you're a drone racer -- weaving through obstacles with a nifty set of first-person-view glasses on your head -- you'll still need that Remote Pilot Certificate. At least that's what the FAA tells Forbes.

OK, I want to make money. What do I need to get my license?

• Be at least 16 years old
• Have a valid government-issued picture ID with your name, address and signature
• Make an appointment to take the knowledge test at a test center near you
• Pay $150 to the testing firm
• Study
• Pass the test
• Wait up to 48 hours for your test score to get uploaded
• Apply for your Remote Pilot Certificate (using the code from your successful test as proof)
• Complete a TSA background check
• Print out a temporary Remote Pilot Certificate (while you wait for the real one to be delivered by mail)
• Register your drone (maybe do this first?) and start flying!

OK, that does sound like a lot. Let's break it down.

How do I get an appointment for a Remote Pilot Certificate?

You need to call, email or submit an online request form with one of the two companies supervising the test -- not the test center.

CATS (Computer Assisted Testing Service):

• 1-800-947-4228, then press 3 (Monday to Friday, 5:30 a.m. PT to 5 p.m. PT, Saturday to Sunday 7 a.m. PT to 3:30 p.m. PT)
• Online registration and payment (CATS calls you back within 24 hours to schedule)

PSI (formerly LaserGrade):

• 1-800-211-2753, then press 1 twice (Monday to Friday, 5 a.m. PT to 5 p.m. PT, Saturday 5 a.m. PT to 2 p.m. PT)
• examschedule@psionline.com (PSI replies within two business hours)
• Online request form (PSI replies within two business hours)

According to testing centers we called, CATS and PSI handle pretty much everything, including assigning you a test center and accepting your $150 payment.

The DJI Phantom 4 taking flight.

CNET

How long is the waiting list?

In the San Francisco Bay Area, it's not too bad as of August 26. One testing center told us they were booked for two weeks, another said they had openings later in the week.

Is there a testing center near me?

Probably! There are 686 of them across the United States. Check for yourself in the FAA's full, official list of test centers (PDF).

You'll need to call CATS or PSI to get your appointment, though. While the FAA's website says you can just walk in, testing centers in the San Francisco Bay Area told us we needed to arrange everything with CATS or PSI first.

How hard is the test?

You get two hours to answer 60 multiple-choice questions, and you only need to answer 70 percent of them correctly to pass! (You can totally miss 18 questions and still succeed.)

But these aren't exactly easy questions. You'll probably need to study.

Oh yeah? How hard can the questions be?

While monitoring the Cooperstown CTAF you hear an aircraft announce that they are midfield left downwind to RWY 13. Where would the aircraft be relative to the runway? (Refer to FAA-CT-8080-2G, Figure 26, area 2.)

A. The aircraft is East.

B. The aircraft is South.

C. The aircraft is West.

That's just one of the FAA's sample questions. Find more here (PDF).

What's the best way to prepare for the test?

The FAA actually offers a free two-hour training course (register here first) to get you up to speed, plus an 87-page study guide (PDF).

But you may need more help than that, because the FAA's course materials don't explain some of the simplest concepts in plain English.

For instance, would you believe you can answer the sample question above without looking at a map? I didn't figure it out until I found this third-party study guide by drone manufacturer 3DR.

I passed the test! Where do I apply for the actual certificate?

• Register here first (pick Applicant) and fill out your personal information. (You can ignore the Airman Certificate Number and Date of Issuance fields)
• Log into the site using your new username and password
• Apply for the certificate here; pick Pilot from the first dropdown menu, then click on the Remote Pilot certification

If you get lost, here's a complete set of instructions.

The Yuneeq Typhoon H drone.

Joshua Goldman/CNET

Now that I've got my certificate, I can fly anywhere, anytime, yes?

Not so much -- as you'll see when you study, there are a lot of rules (PDF) about when and where you can fly your drone.

Unless you get a 107 waiver (and you need to apply for those months in advance), you can't fly:

• At night
• Over people
• Higher than 400 feet (unless you're within 400 feet of a building; skyscraper climbing is OK)
• Further away than you can see with your naked eye
• At speeds over 100 miles per hour
• From a moving vehicle (or inside a covered stationary vehicle)
• Within five miles of an airport -- unless you clear it with air traffic control using this tool at the FAA's website.

Also, you need to register your drone (if it weighs between 0.55 and 55 pounds), do pre-flight checks before you fly and report any accidents that hurt people or do $500 worth of damage to property.

What if my drone weighs more than 55 pounds?

You can't do it with a drone license, or even a 107 waiver. Only a 333 exemption (which are hard to get, can take a long time and generally require a real pilot's license to fly) can let you pilot something that heavy.

What if my company already has a Section 333 Exemption?

Lucky you! But in many cases, you can't actually fly a drone for profit under the 333 unless you're a certified pilot. The Remote Pilot Certificate is another option.

What if I've already got a pilot's license?

If you want your Remote Pilot Certificate, you can actually skip the knowledge test and take the online training course instead. You'll still need to fill out a form, make an in-person appointment and have completed a flight review within the last two years, so it's not necessarily any easier.

Here's a step-by-step guide for existing pilots.

Could I really start a drone burrito delivery service?

Yes, the FAA says package delivery is OK -- but it'd be tough! Particularly given the rule about needing to keep the drone within eyesight, and the one about drones needing to weigh 55 pounds or less. It'd probably be easier to just hand someone their food.

How about a journalist covering breaking news stories?

That could be tough, too. You can't fly over people without a waiver, and the FAA says those will take months. But if you're not reporting live, or not directly over people... the FAA says media companies can do it.

What if I have awesome video goggles and a camera on the drone? Do I really need to watch it with my actual eyes?

Someone needs to: either you, or a second person who can act as a visual observer. Them's the rules!

Which drone should I buy?

If you've never flown before, buy a toy drone. Not kidding -- you'll learn the basic motor skills without any risk of hurting people or turning a $1,000+ aerial camera into scrap. Then, pick one of our top-rated prosumer drones that matches your needs and budget.

Is that it?

So far, so good...but there's still a lot to think about. Maybe you'll want to insure your drone against damage, and yourself against liability? You'll definitely want to practice flying and camera skills, and you'll need to figure out how to convince potential clients that you're right for the job.

Lastly, know that your Remote Pilot Certificate is only good for two years. You'll need to pass another knowledge test once that's done.

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Galaxy watch 3 reviews 2021 galaxy watch 3 45mm review galaxy watch 3 reviews 2021 galaxy watch 3 bluetooth review galaxy watch 5 galaxy watch galaxy watch 4 vs 5

Galaxy Watch 3 review: A stunning smartwatch with SpO2 tracking and ECG

Galaxy Watch 3 review: A stunning smartwatch with SpO2 tracking and ECG

Samsung's Galaxy Watch 3 has a lot working in its favor. It's one of the best-looking smartwatches out there, with a physical rotating bezel and bright, circular AMOLED display. It also brings new health and fitness tools such as a running coach, better sleep tracking than earlier models, blood oxygen monitoring and an electrocardiogram (EKG or ECG). But at $399 (or higher) it's on the pricier end of the smartwatch spectrum, and battery life on the smaller version is disappointing. 

Read more: Samsung Galaxy Watch 4: Samsung aims for the ultimate Android watch

Looks go a long way with this watch 

I was already a fan of the original Galaxy Watch with its round face and physical rotating bezel, and the Watch 3 looks even nicer. It has a bright, beautiful AMOLED screen that's easy to read even in broad daylight. It's also useful if you're on a run and need to quickly check your stats during a workout. The screen can always be on if you need it, although it'll cost you in the battery department (more on that later). I like navigating the interface with the rotating bezel instead of smudging the screen with my fingers. 

Gazing at the Watch 3 on my wrist, I think it could almost pass for a traditional analog watch thanks to its classic design. The smaller bezels mean the screen is bigger than the original's even though the body of the watch has gotten smaller. It still bulges out from under the stainless-steel frame, however, making it thicker than I'd like and not as comfortable to wear at night as the Galaxy Watch Active. 

I tried out the bronze 41mm version (the watch also comes in a 45mm size), with the tan-pink leather straps -- a welcome step up from the silicone straps on the original Galaxy Watch and Galaxy Watch Active series. The bronze is a lot less flashy than the gold of the original Galaxy Watch, and it looks softer and more flattering on my wrist. If you're planning on using it for working out or swimming (or, in my case, bathing small children), you may want to invest in a sports strap as well. I can see the leather getting worn after a while due to frequent contact with water.

A staggered rollout of its health features

Aside from its looks, what really made the Galaxy Watch 3 stand out for me was its impressive list of new health features. It has ECG, an SpO2 app that measures oxygen saturation in the blood, a blood-pressure monitor, fall detection, advanced sleep tracking, period tracking and a detailed post-run analysis. But I have to admit I was a little skeptical as to whether Samsung could deliver on all of these promises. The Galaxy Watch Active 2, for example, also launched with an "ECG feature" which is still pending over a year later. The blood-pressure feature from the original Active was unreliable at best when we tested it and calibrated it against a blood-pressure cuff. 

Samsung has since received FDA clearance for its ECG feature  which can also screen for signs of atrial fibrillation (AFib), and rolled out the feature to both the Watch 3 and the Active 2. But blood pressure that's still pending FDA clearance in the US. (Blood pressure is only available in South Korea at the time of writing.) 

Tracking blood oxygen levels on the Galaxy Watch 3 

Samsung has had SpO2 tracking on past Galaxy devices like the S10, but I was excited to test it out on the watch to see how it had improved. Apple's new Apple Watch Series 6 also tracks blood oxygen levels on demand,  while other smartwatches from Fitbit and Garmin use blood oxygen levels for sleep analysis or to determine VO2 max during exercise.

Tracking blood oxygen has become especially important during the coronavirus pandemic. People with COVID-19 can experience shortness of breath and serious dips in blood oxygen. 

Doctors and hospitals use pulse oximeters placed on the tip of the index finger to measure blood oxygen levels, but these have become a hot commodity during the pandemic as many patients experiencing shortness of breath have turned to these small sensors to determine whether or not to head to the emergency room. 

To test accuracy of the SpO2 app on the Galaxy Watch 3, I took a side-by-side reading using a medical-grade pulse oximeter and both gave results within a few points of each other (98 and 99). It also took a few minutes more to get a read on the Watch 3 and you have to position it correctly on your wrist for it to work. 

Because my oxygen levels were within the healthy range, it's hard to know whether the Watch would be as accurate as the pulse oximeter in the lower ranges as well. It's also important to note that any watch or consumer tech device should only be used as a starting point, never in place of a physician and medical care. 

Like its predecessor, the Watch 3 can monitor stress levels using your heart-rate data. The test takes a few seconds and requires you to keep your arm still. Once it has the information it needs, it'll grade levels on the stress spectrum and give you the option to go through a minute of breathing exercises to help get your rating down.

I took my stress test while on deadline writing this review and it detected very low levels, so I'm a bit skeptical about its accuracy. 

It's also added menstrual cycle or period tracking: You enter the data in your watch and it syncs with the Samsung Health app, which can give you information about your next period and predicted fertility window. The feature isn't native to Samsung and is powered by the Glow app, which was already a relatively established name in the menstrual health tracking category and one I'd used before. 

The other big health feature exclusive to the Galaxy Watch 3 is the trip-detection feature, which I hope I'll never need. If the watch detects that you're not moving after a hard fall, it immediately calls your emergency contact and shares your location. It's not on by default, so you'll have to set it up from the advanced settings option on the Watch 3 and designate an emergency contact. I tried activating it by falling on my bed a few times but I was unsuccessful. The Apple Watch (Series 4 and later) has a similar feature called fall detection that's actually saved lives.

CNET screenshot/Samsung

New ways to work out with the Galaxy Watch 3 

Despite its dressed-up exterior, the Galaxy Watch 3 doubles as a fitness tracker. It tracks 40 different workouts, including swimming (both indoors and outdoors) and will automatically detect and track seven of those workouts. Within about 10 minutes of my starting my walk, I received a notification to start a workout and it gave me credit for the 10 minutes prior. 

A heart-shaped dashboard shows you a breakdown of your active minutes, calories burned and stand time during the day compared with your target. 

I took it on my usual 3-mile run alongside the San Francisco Bay without my phone, and I found it to be fairly accurate at displaying my distance, pace and heart rate. 

You'll have to tweak the settings to display the information you want at a glance during your run, because the default doesn't include heart rate, which I personally like to have on hand. But I liked that it showed me a map of my run and a breakdown of my heart rate zones at the end of the run. It told me I had sustained my maximum heart rate for 2 minutes during the uphill portion of my run. You can also access this data after the fact on the Samsung Health app.

It also has a few bonus features for runners. The first is a running coach, the same one that debuted on the Active 2, which provides real-time feedback about pace and form during a run. Instead of starting a normal run, I selected the running coach on the watch and plugged in my earbuds. A robotic female voice told me to start my warmup. The voice gave me pace alerts throughout the run and generic tips about lengthening my stride and landing on the front of my feet instead of the heel. Be warned that using the running coach will drain the battery a lot faster than if you are tracking a regular run.

What's new to the Galaxy Watch 3 is a post-run analysis, with details including flight and contact time, asymmetry and stiffness to help identify areas of improvement. It's not as comprehensive as the data you'd get on a dedicated running watch such as the Garmin Forerunner, but it could help if you're training for a race or just looking to get more out of your usual route. 

Apparently my "stiffness" needed improvement. Good to know, but it'd be nice to get this feedback live from the running coach so I could have adjusted during my run. It can also calculate your VO2 max, or maximum oxygen consumption during exercise, to give a sense of your overall fitness and tells you what your percentage is within your age group. This is the same metric you'd get if you were doing a VO2 max test in a lab on a stationary bike or treadmill, wearing a mask that measures oxygen exchange. I'm yet to compare them to determine whether or not the reading I got on the Galaxy Watch 3 was accurate. 

Mitchell Chang/CNET

Another first on the Galaxy Watch 3 is a feature that lets you sync it with home workout videos you can control from your wrist. I wasn't really a home workout videos kind of person before March, but I think the global pandemic has made us all rethink how we exercise and I've since been doing a lot of Pilates and yoga classes on my TV. Having the workout on my wrist was a big step up from my usual routine. 

I selected an abs program on the Health app, which consisted of three 15-minute workouts during the week, and was able to cast the first of the series on my Samsung TV and and follow along with my watch. The watch vibrated to let me know when it was time to move on to the next exercise and let me pause with a press of the button when I had to readjust my position. Plus it gave me the appropriate calorie credit at the end of it (or at least what I think is appropriate based on similar previous workouts). 

This is not the first watch to offer training prompts from your wrist: Fitbit's Premium account gives workout videos that sync with the Versa, and there are third-party workout apps for the Apple Watch. But it's nice that Samsung offers it natively and for free. My one complaint is that the workout I chose had the same robotic woman's voice as the running coach guiding me through the workouts -- and let's just say she's not exactly motivating when you're trying to hold a plank for 60 seconds. 

Sleep tracking finally makes sense on the Galaxy Watch 3

One of my biggest complaints about the sleep tracking feature on the original Galaxy Watch was that it provided little context about your sleep habits, especially for if you don't know much about sleep to begin with. 

The Watch 3 has learned a lot from the mistakes of its predecessors, and now gives a more comprehensive look at your night. It gives you a full breakdown of the stages of sleep (light, REM, deep), and compares yours with a normal range. It also gives you a score based on these factors. 

I've never found the score to be helpful, but having the context of seeing my data compared with a normal range helped me figure out how to get the most out of my sleep. While my total sleep time was good, I found I wasn't spending much time in "deep" sleep compared with what's typical. I tried going to bed an hour earlier, and though my total sleep time didn't change, I was able to extend my deep sleep time and felt more rested in the morning. 

Samsung

The basic smartwatch features, but no MST for Samsung Pay

I tested the Galaxy Watch 3 with an iPhone 11 Pro and a Galaxy S20 Ultra and, while it worked well on both, some of its features, which include text responses and mobile payments, are only available for Android users. The Watch runs on Samsung's own Tizen operating system, which is easy to navigate and offers a lot more customization than some of its competitors. You can set widgets and rearrange apps right from the watch screen.

You can type, scribble, dictate or doodle a response and take calls from your wrist. It doesn't have a huge selection of third-party apps (Spotify and Strava are among the few), but it does receive notifications from most of them including Facebook, WhatsApp and even CNET news alerts.

With Spotify you get full music control, offline listening for Premium subscribers and streaming over LTE (you'll pay about $50 more for the cellular version of the Galaxy Watch 3). 

The Galaxy Watch 3 has Samsung Pay, but sadly it's NFC-only and the feature will only work at NFC-enabled terminals. The Galaxy phones and Gear S3 have MST technology so you can use them for contactless payment at nearly all credit card terminals with a magnetic strip. 

Battery life is disappointing

Samsung says the battery on the Galaxy Watch 3 will last for up to two days, which it can, but there are a few caveats. For starters, this claim only applies to the larger 45mm version of the watch. I tested the smaller, 41mm version and Samsung says this size will last closer to a day and a half with "normal use." As always, mileage may vary depending on how you intend to use it. 

With the always on display set to auto brightness, tracking a full night of sleep and taking it on a 30-minute jog (without my phone) I only just made it to the 24-hour mark. 

The watch offers some battery-saving tips including turning off the always-on feature, limiting the screen timeout and turning off location data. I made those changes and the watch lasted a day and a half when I didn't have time for a run and had the always-on screen off, but I feel like those features should be factored into Samsung's claim.

I was also disappointed to find that the watch doesn't come with its own USB wall adapter, just a cable with the magnetic charging puck, but the upside is that you can charge it on any Qi compatible wireless charger, or get a quick boost on the go using the Power Share feature on Samsung's Galaxy phones (S10 or later). 

A good-looking smartwatch with great potential

The Galaxy Watch 3 has come a long way in terms of its features and user experience. Starting at $400 for the base 41mm model, you're getting a premium-looking smartwatch that can finally keep up as a fitness tracker. But the Watch 3 won't feel fully finished until it can deliver on all of its health features.

If you're not too attached to the design, or the physical bezel, you might also consider the Galaxy Watch Active 2, which shares a lot of the same features for about $200 less.

First published Aug. 10.

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