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Home Equity Loan Rates for September 2022

Home Equity Loan Rates for September 2022

With record-breaking home appreciation seen throughout the pandemic, most homeowners have more equity in their homes now compared to two years ago. If you need access to funds for a renovation project, education expenses or even debt consolidation, tapping into your home's equity could provide you with a lower-rate financing option. A home equity loan, which lets you borrow money against the equity you've built in your home, provides you with a lump sum of cash at a fixed interest rate. 

Home equity loans may be particularly appealing in the current economic climate. Mortgage rates overall have gone up more than 2% since the beginning of the year. Even though rates recently dipped as the Federal Reserve increased its benchmark interest rate for the fourth time this year in an attempt to combat rising inflation, home equity loans still tend to offer lower interest rates than other types of loans. That's a significant benefit for anyone looking for financing at a time when it's uncertain how much rates will fluctuate moving forward. 

This type of financing may make sense if you own a home and have at least 15% to 20% of equity built up in your home. Unlike a home equity line of credit, or HELOC, you'll receive the sum of the loan upfront in one lump payment if you're approved.

A home equity loan is a lower interest rate financing option, but it's not without risk. When you secure a home equity loan, your home acts as collateral, which means you could lose your home if you're unable to repay what you borrowed. It's important to carefully consider whether a home equity loan is right for you before applying for financing.

Here's everything you should know about home equity loans, how they work, who they're best for and how they compare to other loan options.

What is a home equity loan?

A home equity loan offers you a lump sum of cash you borrow against the equity built in your house. Tapping into your home's equity means you are borrowing against the mortgage payments you've already made -- it won't replace your existing mortgage payment -- it's a new loan that you'll repay monthly, along with your existing home loan.

Most lenders require you to have 15% to 20% of equity in your home to secure a home equity loan. To figure out how much equity you have, subtract your remaining mortgage balance from the value of your home. For example, if you have a $500,000 mortgage and you owe $350,000 on it, you have $150,000 in equity. To figure out the percentage, divide this number ($150,000) by your home's value ($500,000) and you'll see you have 30% equity available in your home. Lenders will typically let you borrow around 80% to 85% of your home's equity for a home equity loan. So, in this case, you could borrow up to $120,000 to $127,500. 

A standard repayment period for a home equity loan is between five to 30 years for a home equity loan. You make fixed-rate payments that never change, which means even if interest rates go up, your loan rate is locked in. 

Current home equity loan rate trends

One of the benefits of home equity loans is that they typically have lower interest rates than personal loans or credit cards. Right now, borrowers with good credit and sufficient equity can secure home equity loans with interest rates as low as 3%, according to Bankrate, which is owned by the same parent company as CNET.

One potential downside of a home equity loan is that if your property value goes down for any reason, you could end up underwater on your loan. This happens when the balance of your loan becomes higher than the value of your home. That's what happened to millions of Americans during the 2008 financial crisis. Right now, there's less risk of your home's value decreasing below your home equity loan amount, though. Home prices have appreciated as much as 20% in some metro areas across the US over the last two years, and it seems unlikely that they will go down in a significant way anytime soon.

Pros of a home equity loan 

• Fixed-rate payments: Your monthly payment will never change even if interest rates rise.
• One lump sum of cash: You receive the entire loan upfront in one disbursement.
• Low interest rates: It has a lower interest rate than other types of personal loans or credit cards. 
• Tax deductible interest: If you use it for home renovations, you can deduct the interest from your taxes. 
  

 Cons of a home equity loan 

• Using your home as collateral: If you fail to make your payments or default on your loan, your lender can foreclose and take ownership of your house.
• Can take longer to receive the funds: It can take more time to receive a home equity loan than a personal loan, for example. 
• Closing costs are expensive: Closing costs can range anywhere from 2% to 5% of the loan. 
• Your home's value could decrease after receiving your loan: Although home values are not expected to decrease significantly any time soon, if your home's value were to drop below your home equity loan amount, you would have what is known as negative equity. Negative equity means you owe more than your home is worth. So, if you were to sell your home, you likely would not receive enough money from a seller to pay off your loan balance.

Home equity loans vs. HELOC

Home equity loans and home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs, are similar, but have a few key distinctions. Both let you draw on your home's equity and require you to use your home as collateral to secure your loan. The two major differences between a home equity loan and a HELOC are the way you receive the money and how you pay it back. 

A home equity loan gives you the money all at once as a lump sum, whereas a HELOC lets you take money out in installments over a long period of time, typically ten years. Home equity loans have fixed-rate payments that will never go up, but most HELOCs have variable interest rates that rise and fall with the economy and overall interest-rate trends. 

A home equity loan is better if:

• You want a fixed-rate payment: Your monthly payment will never change even if interest rates rise.
• You want one lump sum of money: You receive the entire loan upfront with a home equity loan.
• You know the exact amount of money you need: If you know the amount you need and don't expect it to change, a home equity loan likely makes more sense than a HELOC.

A HELOC is better if:

• You need money over a long period of time: You can take the money as you need it and only pay interest on the amounts you withdraw, not the full loan amount, as is the case with a home equity loan.
• You want a low introductory interest rate: Although HELOC rates may increase over time, they also typically offer lower introductory interest rates than home equity loans. So, you could save money on interest charges.

Home equity loans vs. cash-out refinances

A cash-out refinance is when you replace your existing mortgage with a new mortgage, typically to secure a lower interest rate and more favorable terms. Unlike a traditional refinance, though, you take out a new mortgage for the home's entire value -- not just the amount you owe on your mortgage. You then receive the equity you've already paid off in your home as a cash payout. 

For example, if your home is worth $450,000 and you owe $250,000 on your loan, you would refinance for the entire $450,000, rather than the amount you owe on your mortgage. Your new cash-out refinance home loan would replace your existing mortgage, and then offer you a portion of the equity you built (in this case $200,000) as a cash payout. 

Both a cash-out refi and a home equity loan will provide you with a lump sum of cash that you'll repay in fixed amounts over a specific time period, but they have some important differences. A cash-out refinance replaces your current mortgage payment. When you receive a lump sum of cash from a cash-out refi, it is added back onto the balance of your new mortgage, usually causing your monthly payment to increase. A home equity loan is different -- it does not replace your existing mortgage and instead adds an additional monthly payment to your expenses. 

A home equity loan is better if:

• You do not want to pay private mortgage insurance: Some cash-out refinances require PMI, which can add hundreds of dollars to your payments, but home equity loans do not.
• You can't complete a refinance: With rates rising, it's possible that your mortgage rate is lower than current refinance rates. If that's the case, it likely won't make financial sense for you to refinance. Instead, you can use a home equity loan to only take out the money you need, rather than replacing your entire mortgage with a higher interest rate loan.  

A cash-out refinance is better if:

• Refinance rates are lower than your current mortgage rate: If you can secure a lower interest rate by refinancing, this could save you money in interest, while providing access to a lump sum of cash. 
• You only want one monthly payment: The amount you borrow gets added back to the balance of your mortgage so you only make one payment to your lender every month.
• Less stringent eligibility requirements: If you don't have great credit or you have a high debt-to-income ratio, you may have an easier time qualifying for a cash-out refi compared to a home equity loan. 
• Lower interest rates: Cash-out refinances sometimes offer more favorable interest rates than home equity loans.

FAQs

What is a good home equity loan rate?

Right now, lenders are offering rates that start as low as around 3% for borrowers with good credit, but rates vary depending on your personal financial situation. A lender will base your interest rate on how much equity you have in your home, your credit score, income level and other aspects of your financial life such as your debt-to-income ratio, which is calculated by dividing your monthly debts by your gross monthly income. 

How do I qualify for a home equity loan?

You are typically required to have at least 15% to 20% equity built up in your home to qualify for a home equity loan. You must also have enough income and a low-enough debt-to-income ratio to qualify -- lenders usually want to see a DTI of 43% or below. Lenders also like to see a minimum credit score of at least 620. Generally speaking, if your credit score is below 700 there is a possibility that a lender will deny you for a home equity loan. The better your credit, the better your chances of being approved for a loan with a low interest rate. 

What can I use a home equity loan for?

Home equity loans can be used for anything you choose to spend the money on. Typical life expenses that people usually take out home equity loans to cover are expenditures like home renovations, higher education costs like tuition or to pay off high-interest debt like credit card debt. There's a bonus for home improvements: If you use a home equity loan for renovations, the interest is tax deductible.

You can also use a home equity loan in an emergency situation or for life events like weddings. But keep in mind that whatever you chose to use a loan for, taking out a large sum of money that accrues interest is an expensive choice you should always carefully consider – especially since you're using your home as collateral to secure the loan. If you can't pay it back, the lender could seize your home to repay your debt.

How do I apply for a home equity loan?

Applying for a home equity loan is similar to applying for a mortgage. You need to qualify with a lender or bank who is willing to lend you the money. First, the lender will first want to make sure you have at least 15% to 20% equity in your home. If you do, the lender will take into account your credit score (lenders usually like to see a minimum score of 620), your income and your current debt-to-income ratio to determine whether you qualify and what your interest rate will be. You should be prepared to have financial documents like pay stubs and W2s in order, as well as proof of ownership and proof of the appraised value of your home. It's important to interview multiple lenders to determine which lender can offer you the lowest rates and fees.

More mortgage tools and resources

You can use CNET's mortgage calculator to help you determine how much house you can afford. The CNET mortgage calculator factors in variables such as the size of your down payment, home price and interest rate to help you understand how much of a difference even a slight increase in rates can make in the amount of interest you'll pay over the lifetime of your loan.

More mortgage rates:

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New and Rumored AT&T Phones in 2022: iPhone SE, Galaxy S22, Pixel 6A and More

New and Rumored AT&T Phones in 2022: iPhone SE, Galaxy S22, Pixel 6A and More

Choosing a new phone upgrade is hardly ever simple. In the world of technology there is always something new around the corner, and with Verizon and AT&T embracing 36-month installment plans, the phone you upgrade to will likely be the one you use for the next several years. So, trying to figure out when is the "best time" to upgrade can be tricky. 

Here are some of the phones you'll want to keep an eye out for this year and when we think they might arrive based on past trends and rumors. 

Read more: What To Know About Switching Carriers In 2022

A note about why you should buy a 2022 phone if you have AT&T

Before we get into the actual devices, it's worth mentioning quickly why with AT&T in particular you should be looking for a 2022 device: 5G support and those long installment terms. 

AT&T is prepping for a big 5G upgrade towards the back half of the year that should significantly enhance its service using what is known as midband spectrum. The carrier plans to cover 200 million people with its midband networks by the end of next year, and download speeds are expected to routinely hit several hundred megabits per second, with peaks of 1 gigabit per second.

There are two flavors of midband spectrum AT&T is focusing on, known as C-band and 3.45GHz. The former is what Verizon and AT&T have already started to deploy and is often used for 5G internationally, making it easy to find and enable in a number of already available phones like the Samsung Galaxy S21, iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 and Google's Pixel 6. The carrier already has a list of devices that support C-band.

The 3.45GHz spectrum, however, is not as common in phones today and AT&T has not committed to upgrading earlier devices to support this network. (Making matters a bit more confusing is AT&T is branding both midband flavors, as well as its millimeter-wave network, as "5G Plus.")

Future flagship phones, starting with the Galaxy S22 line (and likely including many of the phones below), are expected to work with all flavors of AT&T's 5G. Since you may be locking yourself into a 36-month commitment when you upgrade, getting a phone that works with all of AT&T's 5G variations should be worth keeping in mind. 

The Galaxy S22 Ultra, left, S22 Plus and S22.

Richard Peterson/CNET

Samsung Galaxy S22

Samsung's latest Galaxy S phones are usually the first major phones of the year, and for the US this trend continues to hold true. The latest Galaxy phones boast the latest Qualcomm Snapdragon processors, improved cameras and, at least on the S22 Ultra, a slot for Samsung's S Pen stylus. All three phones will also work with all of AT&T's 5G networks. 

When are they coming out? The new Galaxy phones hit stores on Feb. 25. Prices start at $800 for the regular Galaxy S22, $1,000 for the S22 Plus and $1,200 for the S22 Ultra. 

The new iPhone SE is expected to keep a similar design to the current iPhone SE, above. 

Angela Lang/CNET

Apple iPhone SE 3 

Apple's budget iPhone has received a fresh 2022 upgrade. Well, kind of fresh. The new model features a nearly identical design to the second-generation iPhone SE (which itself is similar to the iPhone 8) -- which means yes to a home button and big bezels, but no to Face ID or a larger screen -- but now packs in support for low-band and midband 5G networks. The new SE also runs on Apple's A15 processor, the same chip found in the iPhone 13, and has better battery life.

AT&T confirmed that the new iPhone SE will not work with its forthcoming 3.45GHz midband 5G network. It also lacks support for AT&T's millimeter-wave 5G network. You can read more about the different names and flavors of 5G here.

When is it coming out? Apple's newest iPhone SE is available for preorder on March 11 and will go on sale on March 18. Prices start at $429 for a 64GB model.

The rumored Pixel 6A. 

OnLeaks/91Mobiles

Google Pixel 6A

Like Apple, Google also is rumored to be working on a new, more affordable version of its Pixel line. A successor to last year's Pixel 5A, according to 9to5Google, the Pixel 6A will include Google's Tensor chip and two rear cameras: a 12.2-megapixel main shooter and 12-megapixel ultrawide lens. An 8-megapixel camera will be found on the front. 

A report from OnLeaks and 91Mobiles revealed that design-wise the phone will feature a similar look to the Pixel 6 and 6 Pro, including the camera bar along the top of the back of the phone. The screen will be 6.2 inches across, with a fingerprint reader inside the display. 

When is it coming out? Google generally does its Pixel A-series updates in the summer, with the Pixel 5A announced in August last year and the Pixel 4A line announced the same time the previous year. That said, it is possible the phone might show up at the company's annual Google I/O developer event, which is where the Pixel 3A made its debut back in 2019. 

Samsung's Z Fold 3 and Z Flip 3. 

Lexy Savvides/CNET

Samsung Galaxy Z Flip 4 and Z Fold 4

Samsung has been consistent in updating its foldable phones every summer. While rumors are pretty thin on what to expect for 2022, if you are a fan of foldable devices these are two to keep an eye on. Korean news site The Elec reports that the Z Fold 4 will follow the S22 Ultra's lead and include a slot for an S Pen stylus.

When are they coming out? Samsung has used its end-of-summer launch to roll out updates to its Z line of phones in the past, so if that trend holds true these could arrive in August or September. Last year's Z series was announced in August. 

An early iPhone 14 render from Jon Prosser, designed by Ian Zelbo.

Jon Prosser

Apple iPhone 14

Whereas the iPhone SE 3 is seemingly imminent, the next major iPhone update isn't slated to hit until the fall. Among the many rumored changes and improvements for this year's flagship line of iPhones include the regular upgrades to the processor and camera, with the Pro and Pro Max possibly getting 48-megapixel rear shooters, up from the 12 megapixels that have been found on previous iPhones. 

Potentially the biggest change in the iPhone 14, however, could be in the front camera placement for the 14 Pro and Pro Max. Rumors suggest Apple might finally ditch the notch and go with a hole or pill-shaped cutout instead. 

When are they coming out? Apple generally announces its major iPhone upgrades in September. 

Google's rumored Pixel foldable is rumored to be similar in design to Oppo's Find N, above. 

Eli Blumenthal/CNET

Google Pixel 7, 7 Pro and Pixel Notepad

Google is rumored to be working on a few big Pixel upgrades this year, including successors to the Pixel 6 line and a new foldable Pixel. According to 9to5Google, the Pixel 7 line will sport a second-generation version of Google's custom Tensor processor as well as an updated Samsung modem for connecting to cellular networks. A recent leak from OnLeaks and SmartPrix appears to show the design of the 7 Pro, which is similar to last year's Pixel 6 Pro styling.

The rumored Pixel 7 Pro. 

OnLeaks/Smartprix

The outlet has also reported that the company is working on a foldable Pixel that it says may be called the Pixel Notepad. Not much is known about this device, though it is expected to run on Google's Tensor chip. 9to5Google also says the price could be more affordable than the $1,800 Samsung charges for the Z Fold 3, and that its design could be more like Oppo's Find N. 

When are they coming out? Google has traditionally done its big Pixel updates in October. Analyst Ross Young has tweeted that the foldable phone, in particular, may arrive in October. 

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Don't Swap Your Gas-Guzzler for an Electric Vehicle to Avoid High Fuel Prices

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Don't Swap Your Gas-Guzzler for an Electric Vehicle to Avoid High Fuel Prices

This story is part of Plugged In, CNET's hub for all things EV and the future of electrified mobility. From vehicle reviews to helpful hints and the latest industry news, we've got you covered.

There are plenty of great reasons to consider an electric vehicle. They usually offer stellar performance, they're smooth and quiet to drive, you can do much of your "refueling" at home (meaning you never have to visit a gas station unless you need snacks or a bathroom break) and they have zero tailpipe emissions. But despite their considerable advantages, EVs still aren't for everyone, and they don't always make the most economic sense.

If you tow earth-moving equipment or haul gravel for a living, you're probably going to want a heavy duty diesel-powered pickup, because today's EVs aren't going to cut it. Likewise, if you reside in an apartment and don't have a parking space, much less a garage with a Level 2 charger, an electric vehicle may be a hard sell. But what if you're looking for relief from high fuel prices? EVs cost way less to "refuel," though they are often quite expensive upfront.

Let's say you own a midrange, Lariat-trim, 2022 Ford F-150 with four-wheel drive, the lovely 2.7-liter EcoBoost twin-turbocharged V6 and a standard 10-speed automatic transmission, a popular pickup configuration in the US. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, this big bad truck stickers at up to 19 mpg city, 24 mpg highway and 21 mpg combined; frightening figures compared to a Toyota Prius, but everything is relative. For a full-size truck, this rig is actually quite economical.

Electric vehicles offer instant torque for speedy acceleration. 

Nick Miotke/CNET

But what does it cost to fuel this full-size truck each year? Well, let's do a little math to figure it out. (Scary, I know!) According to AAA, at the time of writing the national average price for a gallon of regular-grade gasoline is about $4.24. This varies wildly from state to state: In California, the per-gallon price is around $5.88; on the opposite coast in Maryland, it's a much more reasonable $3.80. As reported by insurance comparison site The Zebra, Americans drive an average of 14,263 miles each year. To keep things simple, let's round up and say you travel 15,000 miles annually in your F-150 and average 21 mpg doing so (the EPA estimate). Dividing 15,000 by 21 means you're burning about 714 gallons of dinosaur juice per year. There are myriad variables on top of that, but we can simply multiply 714 by 4.24, which works out to an annual fuel bill of about $3,028. Ouch.

Now let's compare that traditional, combustion-powered pickup to the exciting, all-electric F-150 Lightning. In midrange XLT trim with the extended-range battery pack, this truck offers an estimated 320 miles of range. As for efficiency, this version of the Lightning should return 78 mpge city and 63 mpge highway, scores that result in a combined rating of 70 mpge. For reference, mpge is a way of quantifying how much energy is in a gallon of gasoline; it works out to about 33.7 kilowatt-hours of electricity.

Next, according to the Energy Information Administration, the national average residential cost of electricity in the US was 13.72 cents per kWh in January 2022; we'll round up and say 14 cents per kWh. The Lightning's large battery pack clocks in at a husky 131 kilowatt-hours, so multiplying that by 0.14 means it would cost about $18.34 to completely recharge this truck from 0 to 100%. This is not something most people will ever do, because who wants to roll up to a charger with zero range? (Also, if you use public chargers, you'll probably be paying a lot more for the privilege.) Still, this is illustrative of how affordable it is to run an EV.

The Kia EV6 is one of our favorite new electric vehicles.

Antuan Goodwin/CNET

But now let's calculate how much it costs to run the Lightning for a year. We could base this off the EPA's estimated 48 kWh/100-mile efficiency figure, but let's do it just like we did with the standard F-150 above. Taking 15,000 miles per year and dividing that by 70 mpge, the combined "fuel economy" rating of this vehicle, gets you 214 "gallons" of electricity. Next, multiply 214 by 33.7, the equivalent number of kWh per gallon of gasoline and you get about 7,221 kWh. Multiply that figure by $0.14 and the result is roughly $1,011 in electricity per year. This is very close to the EPA's estimate of $950.

So, if it costs $3,028 to run the conventionally powered F-150 15,000 miles each year and just $1,011 to power the Lightning, the all-electric model is only one-third as expensive. The annual difference is a not insubstantial $2,017. What could you do with an extra two grand each year?

Combustion vs. Electric

	2022 Ford F-150 Lariat	2022 Ford F-150 Lightning XLT	2022 Honda Accord Sport	2022 Kia EV6 Wind
Vehicle Details	4WD, crew-cab body, 2.7-liter twin-turbo V6, 5.5-foot bed	4WD, crew-cab body, 5.5-foot bed, 131-kWh long-range battery	FWD, 1.5-liter turbo-four, continuously variable transmission	RWD, 77.4-kWh long-range battery
Range (miles)	Up to 546	320	Up to 488	310
City Efficiency (mpg or mpge)	19	78	30	134
Highway Efficiency (mpg or mpge)	24	63	38	101
Combined Efficiency (mpg or mpge)	21	70	33	117
EPA kWh/100 miles	N/A	48	N/A	29
As-Tested Price	$56,020	$74,269	$31,085	$48,255
Estimated Annual Fuel/Electricity Cost to Drive 15,000 Miles	$3,028	$1,011	$1,929	$605

What about payback (and I don't mean revenge) time? Well, that XLT-trim Lighting with the big battery and no options starts at $74,269, including $1,795 in destination fees. That's certainly pricey, but the top-shelf Platinum model is far richer, kicking off at nearly 93 grand. As for our old-fashioned Ford F-150 (a midrange, Lariat trim, crew-cab model with a 5.5-foot bed, four-wheel-drive and the standard equipment group), it stickers for around $56,020, also including $1,795 for delivery. Subtracting $56,020 from $74,269 means the Lightning is a whopping $18,249 pricier, more than the cost of a new Nissan Versa sedan.

Next, dividing the price delta between these trucks by the annual fuel/electricity cost difference means you'd have to own the Lightning for about nine years for your "fuel" savings to make up the price difference, though if you get a more expensive model, a higher-trim F-150 or the same variant with more options, the payback period compared to that all-electric Lighting will be shorter.

Not surprisingly, it's the same story with smaller vehicles. Take the lovely Kia EV6, for instance. This stylish and spacious hatchback is a great choice for folks that want to downsize from a truck and save a big chunk of change in the process. A long-range, Wind-trim, rear-drive EV6 offers 310 miles of range and stickers at 134 miles per gallon equivalent city, 101 mpge highway and 117 mpge combined. Calculating the EV6's efficiency like we did with the Lightning above reveals that the electricity needed to run this vehicle for 15,000 miles should cost around $605 per year, which is very close to the EPA's estimate of $550.

Despite the myriad benefits of owning an EV, sometimes it still makes more sense to keep your combustion-powered vehicle.

Steven Ewing/CNET

Comparing our miserly EV6 to a midrange Honda Accord Sport sedan, which is far more efficient than an F-150, is similarly revealing. With a 1.5-liter turbocharged four-cylinder engine, a continuously variable transmission and a combined fuel economy rating of 33 mpg, you'd be spending about $1,928 on fuel to drive this Honda for 15,000 miles... nearly 3.2 times more than the Kia. However, including destination and delivery, the Accord is far cheaper at a totally reasonable $31,085 compared to the EV6's $48,255 price tag. It's a difference of $17,170, which is slightly less than the delta between the standard F-150 and the Lightning. 

Dividing that figure by $1,323, the annual price difference of running the Accord compared to the Kia, works out to a payback period of nearly 13 years. In this case, it may make more sense to keep on driving the Accord even if you nearly faint every time you fill the tank.

The entirety of this discussion presupposes you're focused on prioritizing personal finances above all other concerns. But there's a bigger picture to consider: We haven't even discussed the negative environmental impact that burning fossil fuels or digging up rare earth minerals has on climate change, let alone the many and varied downstream costs that come home to roost societally as a result. Those sorts of long-term communal costs are clearly beyond the scope of this article, but they deserve to be considered.

At the end of the day, there are plenty of great reasons to get an electric vehicle, but if you're thinking about swapping your internal combustion-powered car or truck for a new EV just to save money at the pump, make sure to do the math first -- especially if your current ride is paid for -- because plugging in and making a change may not make economic sense for you, even with fuel prices in the stratosphere.

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Inflation, Interest Rates and Jobs: How Today's Economy Compares to Recessions of the Past

Inflation, Interest Rates and Jobs: How Today's Economy Compares to Recessions of the Past

This story is part of Recession Help Desk, CNET's coverage of how to make smart money moves in an uncertain economy.

What's happening

There's still debate about whether the US economy is officially headed into a recession, but the economic downturn is causing widespread stress.

Why it matters

Periods of financial volatility and market decline can drive people to panic and make costly mistakes with their money.

What's next

Examining what's happening now -- and comparing it with the past -- can help investors and consumers decide what to do next.

Facing the aftershocks of a rough economy in the first half of 2022, with sky-high inflation, rising mortgage rates, soaring gas prices and a bear market for stocks, leading indicators of a recession have moderated slightly in the past month. That could mean the economic downturn won't be as long or brutal as expected. 

Still, the majority of Americans are feeling the sting of rising prices and anxiety over jobs. The country has experienced two consecutive quarters of economic slowdown -- the barometer for measuring a recession -- even though the National Bureau of Economic Research hasn't made the "official" recession call.  

At a time like this, we should consider what happens in a recession, look at the data to determine whether we're in one and try to maintain some historical perspective. It's also worth pointing out that down periods are temporary and that, over time, both the stock market and the US economy bounce back. 

I don't mean to minimize the gravity and hardship of the times. But it can be useful to review how the economy has behaved in the past to avoid irrational or impulsive money moves. For this, we can largely blame recency bias, our inclination to view our latest experiences as the most valid. It's what led many to flee the stock market in 2008 when the S&P 500 crashed, thereby locking in losses and missing out on the subsequent bull market. 

"It's our human tendency to project the immediate past into the future indefinitely," said Daniel Crosby, chief behavioral officer at Orion Advisor Solutions and author of The Laws of Wealth. "It's a time-saving shortcut that works most of the time in most contexts but can be woefully misapplied in markets that tend to be cyclical," Crosby told me via email. 

Before you make a knee-jerk reaction to your portfolio, give up on a home purchase or lose it over job insecurity, consider these chart-based analyses from the last three decades. We hope this data-driven overview will offer a broader context and some impetus for making the most of your money today.

What do we know about inflation? 

Historical inflation rate by year

Macrotrends.net

Current conditions: The US is experiencing the highest rate of inflation in decades, driven by global supply chain disruptions, the injection of federal stimulus dollars and a surge in consumer spending. In real dollars, the 8.5% rise in consumer prices over the past year is adding about $400 more per month to household budgets. 

The context: Policymakers consider 2% per year to be a "normal" inflation target. The country's still experiencing over four times that figure. The 9.1% annual rate in July was the largest jump in inflation since 1980 when the inflation rate hit 13.5% following the prior decade's oil crisis and high government spending on defense, social services, health care, education and pensions. Back then, the Federal Reserve increased rates to stabilize prices and, by the mid-1980s, inflation fell to below 5%.

The upside: As overall inflation rates rise, the silver lining might be increased rates of return on personal savings. Bank accounts are starting to offer more attractive yields, while I bonds -- federally backed accounts that more or less track inflation -- are attracting savers, too. 

What's happening with mortgage rates? 

30-year fixed-rate mortgage averages in the US

Current conditions: As the Federal Reserve continues its rate-hike campaign to cool spending and try to tame inflation, the rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has grown significantly. In June, the average rate jumped annually by nearly 3 percentage points to almost 6%. In real dollars, that means that after a 20% down payment on a new home (let's use the average sale price of $429,000), a buyer would roughly need an extra $7,300 a year to afford the mortgage. Since then, rates have cooled a bit, even dipping back down below 5%. What happens next with rates depends on where inflation goes from here.

The context: Three years ago, homebuyers faced similar borrowing costs and, at the time, rates were characterized as "historically low." And if we think borrowing money is expensive today, let's not forget the early 1980s when the Federal Reserve jacked up rates to never-before-seen levels due to hyperinflation. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in 1981 topped 16%. 

The upside: For homebuyers, a potential benefit to rising rates is downward pressure on home prices, which could cause the housing market to cool slightly. As the cost to borrow continues to increase with mortgages becoming more expensive, homes could experience fewer offers and prices would slow in pace. In fact, nearly one in five sellers dropped their asking price during late April through late May, according to Redfin. 

On the flip side, less homebuyers mean more renters. Rent prices have skyrocketed, and housing activists are asking the White House to take action on what they call a "national emergency."

What about the stock market? 

Dow Jones Industrial Average stock market index for the past 30 years

Macrotrends.net

Current conditions: Year-to-date, the Dow Jones Industrial Average -- a composite of 30 of the most well-known US stocks such as Apple, Microsoft and Coca-Cola -- is about 8.5% below where it started in January. Relative to the broader market, technology stocks are down much more. The Nasdaq is off almost 19% since the start of the year. 

The benchmark S&P 500 stock index hit lows in June that marked a more than 20% drop from January, which brought us officially into a bear market. Since then, it's bounced back up a little, but some experts warn that a current bear market rally is at odds with expected earnings and we could see even lower stock prices in the near future.

The context: Stock price losses in 2022 are not nearly as swift and steep as what we saw in March 2020, when panic over the pandemic drove the DJIA down by 26% in roughly four trading days. The market reversed course the following month and began a bull run lasting more than two years, as the lockdown drove massive consumption of products and services tied to software, health care, food and natural gas. 

Prior to that, in 2008 and 2009, a deep and pervasive crisis in housing and financial services sank the Dow by nearly 55% from its 2007 high. But by fall 2009, it was off to one of its longest winning streaks in financial history. 

The upside: Given the cyclical nature of the stock market, now is not the time to jump ship.* "Times that are down, you at least want to hold and/or think about buying," said Adam Seessel, author of Where the Money Is. "Over the last 100 years, American stocks have been the surest way to grow wealthy slowly over time," he told me during a recent So Money podcast.

*One caveat: If you're closer to or living in retirement and your portfolio has taken a sizable hit, it may be worth talking to a professional and reviewing your selection of funds to ensure that you're not taking on too much risk. Target-date funds, a popular investment vehicle in many retirement accounts that auto-adjust for risk as you age, may be too risky for pre- or early retirees. 

What does unemployment tell us? 

US unemployment rates

Current conditions: The July jobs report shows the unemployment rate holding steady, slightly dropping to 3.5%. The Great Resignation of 2021, where millions of workers quit their jobs over burnout, as well as unsatisfactory wages and benefits, left employers scrambling to fill positions. However, that could be changing as economic challenges deepen: More job losses are likely on the horizon, and an increasing number of workers are concerned with job security. 

The context: The rebound in theunemployment rate is an economic hallmark of the past two years. But the ongoing interest rate hike may weigh on corporate profits, leading to more layoffs and hiring freezes. For context, during the Great Recession, in a two-year span from late 2007 to 2009, the unemployment rate rose sharply from about 5% to 10%. 

Today, the tech sector is one to watch. After benefiting from rapid growth led by consumer demand in the pandemic, companies like Google and Facebook may be in for a "correction." Layoffs.fyi, a website that tracks downsizing at tech startups, logged close to 37,000 layoffs in Q2, more than triple from the same period last year. 

The upside: If you're worried about losing your job because your employer may be more vulnerable in a recession, document your wins so that when review season arrives, you're ready to walk your manager through your top-performing moments. Offer strategies for how to weather a potential slowdown. All the while, review your reserves to see how far you can stretch savings in case you're out of work. Keep in mind that in the previous recession, it took an average of eight to nine months for unemployed Americans to secure new jobs.

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What's happening

Home prices overall are up by 37% since March 2020.

Why it matters

Surging home prices and higher interest rates make monthly mortgage payments less affordable.

What's next

Rising mortgage rates will make borrowing money more expensive, which will lessen competition to buy homes and eventually flatten prices.

Home prices continued to skyrocket in March as buyers tried to stay ahead of rising mortgage rates. 

Prices increased by 20.6% this March compared to last year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measures of US home prices. This was the highest year-over-year increase in March for home prices in more than 35 years of data. Seven in 10 homes sold for more than their asking price, according to CoreLogic. 

Out of the 20 cities tracked by the 20-city composite index, Tampa, Phoenix and Miami saw the highest year-over-year gains in March. Tampa saw the greatest increase, with an almost 35% increase in home prices year-over-year. All 20 cities experienced double-digit price growth for the year ending in March.

The strongest price growth was seen in the south and southeast, with both regions posting almost 30% gains in March. Seventeen of the 20 metro areas also saw acceleration in their annual gains since February. 

"Those of us who have been anticipating a deceleration in the growth rate of US home prices will have to wait at least a month longer," said Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, in the release. "The strength of the Composite indices suggests very broad strength in the housing market, which we continue to observe."

Since the start of the pandemic in March 2020, home prices overall are up by 37%. The current surge in home prices is a result of tight competition between buyers in a low-inventory market as they attempt to lock in lower mortgage rates before rates jump even higher throughout the year, as experts predict they will.

If you're considering buying a new home -- or are actively in the market -- the news isn't all bad. Interest rates are at their highest point in more than 40 years, and one potential benefit of that may, eventually, be downward pressure on home prices. As it becomes increasingly expensive to borrow money, fewer people will seek to do so, and homes for sale may receive fewer offers leading to, eventually, lower prices. In fact, nearly one in five sellers lowered their asking price during a four-week period in May and April, according to Redfin.

"Mortgages are becoming more expensive as the Federal Reserve has begun to ratchet up interest rates, suggesting that the macroeconomic environment may not support extraordinary home price growth for much longer," said Lazzara. "Although one can safely predict that price gains will begin to decelerate, the timing of the deceleration is a more difficult call."

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8 Ways to Protect Your Money During a Recession

8 Ways to Protect Your Money During a Recession

This story is part of Recession Help Desk, CNET's coverage of how to make smart money moves in an uncertain economy.

What's happening

With the latest GDP report showing another consecutive quarterly decline in economic activity, the country is likely in a technical recession.

Why it matters

Previous recessions have all seen pervasive layoffs, higher costs of borrowing and a tumultuous stock market.

What it means for you

Worry less about the macroeconomic news of the day and focus on what you can control. Take inventory of your financial life, gather facts and make moves to protect your savings.

While many economists still refuse to use the R-word, the warning signs indicate the US economy is now likely in a technical recession. In addition to another quarterly drop in GDP, or gross domestic product, consumer confidence has gone down, the stock market is in bear territory and inflation is still soaring, despite four interest rates hikes from the Federal Reserve.

An increase in layoffs -- another key indicator of a recession -- is also being felt across the country as many companies, particularly in the tech sector, have announced layoffs in recent months. And if you ask most people, they'll say it's become undoubtedly harder to make ends meet. At least one poll conducted in June finds a majority of Americans, or 58%, believe we are in a recession.

But then others point to some key factors that point in the opposite direction -- for example, low unemployment levels, rising spending and a healthy banking sector.

While the National Bureau of Economic Research makes the official call on a recession -- and so far it's remained tight-lipped -- whether we call this challenging financial period a recession or not seems like a pretty subjective matter of interpretation. 

At CNET Money, we're dedicated to supporting your financial health with accurate, timely and honest advice that takes into consideration the pressing financial questions of our time. That's why we're launching the Recession Help Desk, a destination where you will get the latest, best advice and action steps for navigating this uncertain period. 

First, a quick look back at the US economy

Since the Great Depression, the US has had about a dozen economic setback periods lasting anywhere from a few months to over a year. In some ways, there's always a recession on the horizon: Economies are cyclical, with upswings and downturns. We can't predict what will happen in advance, and sometimes we can't even tell what's happening while we're in the middle of it. Morgan Housel, author of The Psychology of Money, may have said it best when he tweeted back in April: "We're definitely heading toward a recession. The only thing that's uncertain is the timing, location, duration, magnitude and policy response." 

Attempting to figure out recession specifics is a guessing game. Anyone who tells you different is likely trying to sell you something. The best we can do right now is draw on history to build context, get more proactive about the money moves we can control and resist the urge to panic. This includes reviewing what happened in previous recessions and taking a closer look at our financial goals to see what levers to pull to stay on track. 

Here are eight specific steps you can take to create more financial stability and resilience in a turbulent economy. 

Read more:  Bear Markets: Expert Stock Market Advice for Investors

1. Plan more, panic less   

The silver lining to current recession predictions is that they're still only forecasts. There is time to assemble a plan without the real pressures and challenges that come with being in the thick of an economic slowdown. Over the next couple of months, review your financial plan and map out some worst-case scenarios when your adrenaline isn't running high. 

Some questions to consider: If you did lose your job later this year or in early 2023, what would be your plan? How can you fortify your finances now to weather a layoff? (Keep reading for related advice.)

2. Bulk up your cash reserves 

A key to navigating a recession relatively unscathed is having cash in the bank. The steep 10% unemployment rate during the Great Recession in 2009 taught us this. On average, it took eight to nine months for those affected to land on their feet. Those fortunate to have robust emergency accounts were able to continue paying their housing costs and buy time to figure out next steps with less stress. 

Consider retooling your budget to allocate more into savings now to hit closer to the recommended six- to nine-month rainy day reserve. It may make sense to unplug from recurring subscriptions, but a better strategy that won't feel as depriving may be to call billers (from utility companies to cable to car insurance) and ask for discounts and promotions. Speak specifically with customer retention departments to see what offers they can extend to keep you from canceling your plans.

3. Seek a second income stream

Web searches for "side hustles" are always popular, but especially now, as many look to diversify income streams in the run up to a potential recession. Just like it helps to diversify investments, diversifying income streams can reduce the income volatility that arrives with job loss. For inspiration on easy, low-lift side hustles that you might be able to do from home, check out my story.

4. Resist impulsive investing moves

It's hard not to be worried about your portfolio after all the red arrows in the stock market this year. If you have more than 10 or 15 years until retirement, history proves it's better to stick with the market ups and downs. According to Fidelity, those who stayed invested in target-date funds, which include mutual funds and ETFs commonly tied to a retirement date, during the 2008 to 2009 financial crisis had higher account balances by 2011 than those who reduced or halted their contributions. "Those who panic and sell 'at the bottom' often regret it because trying to time the market can result in losses that are very difficult to regain because stock prices can change quickly," said Linda Davis Taylor, seasoned investment professional and author of The Business of Family. 

If you have yet to sign up for automatic rebalancing, definitely look into this with your portfolio manager or online broker. This feature can ensure that your instruments remain properly weighted and aligned with your risk tolerance and investment goals, even as the market swings. 

5. Lock interest rates now

As the policy makers raise interest rates to bring down inflation levels, interest rates will increase. This potentially spells bad news for anyone with an adjustable-rate loan. It's also a challenge for those carrying a balance on a credit card.

While federal student loan borrowers don't have to worry about their rates going up, those with private variable rate loans may want to look into consolidating or refinancing options through an existing lender or other banks, such as SoFi, that could consolidate the debt into one fixed-rate loan. This will prevent your monthly payments from increasing unpredictably when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again this year, as expected.

6. Protect your credit score  

Borrowers may have a tougher time accessing credit in recessions, as interest rates jump and banks enforce stricter lending rules. To qualify for the best loan terms and rates, aim for a strong credit score in the 700s or higher. You can typically check your credit score for free through your existing bank or lender, and you can also receive free weekly credit reports from each of the three main credit bureaus through the end of the year from AnnualCreditReport.com. 

To improve your credit score, work towards paying down high balances, review and dispute any errors that may be on your credit report or consider consolidating high-interest credit card debt into a lower interest debt consolidation loan or 0% introductory APR balance transfer card.

7. Rethink buying a home

While home prices have cooled in some areas, it remains a competitive housing market with few homes to go around. If rising mortgage rates are adding more pressure to your ability to buy a home within budget, consider renting for a little longer. If you're also worried about your job security in a potential recession, then that's even more reason to take pause. Leasing isn't cheap at the moment, but it can afford you more flexibility and mobility. Without the need to park cash for a down payment and closing costs, renting can also keep you more liquid during a potentially challenging economy.

8. Take care of your valuables

The advice that was born out of the sky-high inflation period in the late 1970s still applies now: "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." 

With ongoing supply chain issues, many of us face high prices and delays in acquiring new cars, tech products, furniture, home materials and even contact lenses. This includes replacement parts, too. If a product comes with a free warranty, be sure to sign up. And if it's a nominal fee to extend the insurance, it may be worth it during a time when prices are on the rise.

For example, my car has been in the repair shop for over three months, waiting for parts to arrive from overseas. So, in addition to paying my monthly car payment, I have a rental car fee that's adding up. If nothing else, I'll be heading into a possible recession a more cautious driver.

Read more: Smaller Packages, Same Prices: Shrinkflation Is Sneaky

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Why Black Holes Smashing Together Could Settle an Astronomical Dispute

Why Black Holes Smashing Together Could Settle an Astronomical Dispute

In 2019, a conference held at the Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics in California concluded with a fraught statement: "We wouldn't call it a tension or a problem but rather a crisis."

David Gross, a particle physicist and former director of the KITP was talking about the rate at which our universe is expanding. But Gross wasn't worried about the expansion itself. We've already known for decades that the cosmos is exponentially blasting apart, because celestial bodies surrounding our planet continuously drift farther away from us and from each other. 

No, Gross was worried about mathematics.

To determine exactly how quickly this cosmic shift is happening, scientists must calculate an important value called the Hubble constant -- yet, even today, no one can agree on the answer. 

Thus, the astronomy community was permeated with a "crisis," but it was a dilemma that cradled innovation. Since that tense conference, experts everywhere have starkly adjusted the way they look at their Hubble constant equations as an attempt to restore peace among stargazers. 

And on Monday, one such team presented a very out-of-the box idea to settle the dispute, as outlined in a paper published Aug. 3 in the journal Physical Review Letters.

Basically, astronomers from the University of Chicago believe when black holes lurking in deep space smash into one another – which they do sometimes – the gravitational leviathans reverberate ripples across the fabric of space and time that might leave traces of information crucial to decoding the Hubble constant. 

In the end, if scientists can figure out the true Hubble constant, they can also derive answers to some really big questions about our universe like: Howdid it evolve to the stunning realm we see today? What is it physically made out of? What might it look like billions of years from now, long after humanity ceases to exist and therefore can't cast an eye on it?

Reading between the lines of space-time

Every so often, two enormous black holes collide. This means that a pair of the universe's most incomprehensibly massive objects combine into an even more incomprehensibly massive object. 

When this happens, the merger sends ripples across the fabric of space and time -- as coined by Albert Einstein's general relativity -- just like dropping a rock in a pond would send ripples across the water. 

Animation of gravitational waves produced by a fast binary orbit.

NASA

Just four years before Gross and fellow physicists hosted their stressful debate over the Hubble constant conundrum, two powerful observatories managed to capture those black hole-induced ripples from down here on Earth. They're called the US Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory and the Italian Virgo observatory. 

Over the past few years, both LIGO and Virgo have detected the ripples from almost 100 pairs of black hole collisions, and those readings might help us calculate the rate at which the universe is expanding, according to Daniel Holz, an astrophysicist at the University of Chicago and co-author of the new study. They might shed light on the Hubble constant. 

"If you took a black hole and put it earlier in the universe," Holz said in a press release, "the signal would change, and it would look like a bigger black hole than it really is."

What this means is that if a black hole collision happened way (way) out in space, and the signal has been traveling for a long (long) time, the gravitational ripples emanating from the event would've been affected by the universe expanding since the incident. If you think about pond ripples again, for instance, dropping a rock in a pond usually creates tighter ripples right at the point of contact. But if you keep watching those ripples extend outward, they get sort of wider and blunter.

Therefore, if we can somehow measure the changes in black hole collision ripples, perhaps we can understand the rate at which some of those changes occur. That would help us understand the rate at which the universe's expansion might've affected them and finally, the rate at which the universe is legitimately expanding. 

"So we measure the masses of the nearby black holes and understand their features, and then we look further away and see how much those further ones appear to have shifted," Jose María Ezquiaga, a NASA Einstein Postdoctoral Fellow, Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics Fellow and co-author of the new study, said in the release. "This gives you a measure of the expansion of the universe."

Is there a catch?

But there is a bit of a caveat -- this technique, which the researchers call the "standard siren" method, can't quite be implemented right now. In truth, LIGO and Virgo are going to have to really buckle down and get to work for us to even imagine a future where it becomes commonplace. 

"We need preferably thousands of these signals, which we should have in a few years, and even more in the next decade or two," Holz said. "At that point, it would be an incredibly powerful method to learn about the universe."

Though a pretty promising aspect of the standard siren method is that it relies on Einstein's general relativity theory -- tried and tested rules that are considered unbreakable by many, and thus incredibly trustworthy. 

From left, an illustration of how relative amounts that the moon might warp space-time, then the Earth, the sun, and a black hole all the way on the right.

Zooey Liao/CNET

By contrast, most other scientists tackling the Hubble constant crisis rely on stars and galaxies, the researchers said, which involves a lot of complex astrophysics and introduces an honest possibility of error. But, of note, there have been some other experts zeroing-in on gravitational waves as measurements of the Hubble constant. 

In 2019, for example, a separate crew of astronomers looked at ripples across space and time stemming from a neutron star merger, which was picked up by LIGO and Virgo in 2017. They were trying to understand how bright the collision was when it happened by reverse calculating from the gravitational waves and eventually arriving at a Hubble constant estimate. And in the same year, another team suggested that we need only about 25 neutron star collision readings to nail down the constant to within an accuracy of 3%.

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