We Watched More TV on Streaming Than Cable for First Time Ever, Nielsen Says

We Watched More TV on Streaming Than Cable for First Time Ever, Nielsen Says

Streaming services captured the largest share of television viewing for the first time ever in July, according to data released Thursday from Nielsen, the television ratings authority. Of all the TV watching time in July, 34.8% happened over streaming while 34.4% happened over cable. Broadcast TV captured a 21.6% share of the total.

Nielsen noted that streaming has surpassed broadcast before, but July marked the first time it's also exceeded cable viewing. Cable television's share of viewing fell about 9% from July 2021, while streaming's share increased by nearly 23% year over year, according to the report. 

Netflix captured 8% of all viewing in July 2022, thanks in part to people watching nearly 18 billion minutes of the hit series Stranger Things, according to the Nielsen data. Several other streaming services -- including Amazon Prime, YouTube and Hulu -- captured their largest-ever share of viewing time in July.

It's a time of change and increasing competition among streamers. Both Disney Plus and Netflix will be rolling out new ad-supported tiers in the coming months. Netflix had its largest drop in subscribers ever recently and is looking for ways to limit password sharing after raising prices at the beginning of 2022. Disney Plus, ESPN Plus and Hulu (all majority-owned by Disney) will all see price increases in the near future, too. HBO Max and Discovery Plus will merge starting in 2023 after their their parent companies did so earlier this year.

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'Stranger Things' Will Be Netflix's Biggest Hit Yet. How? Netflix Changed its Rules

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'Stranger Things' Will Be Netflix's Biggest Hit Yet. How? Netflix Changed its Rules

What's happening

Netflix ranks the popularity of its originals with all-time Most Popular charts, but last month it quietly changed the way it measures the watch time for some shows. The stats for those shows inflated dramatically.

Why it matters

For Netflix to launch a cheaper tier with ads, it must win over advertisers, and its measurement takes on new significance when advertisers become part of the equation.

What's next

Stranger Things, which released seven episodes last week and will drop two more July 1, is all but certain to be ranked as Netflix's biggest hit yet thanks to this rule change that works in the show's favor.

Stranger Things returned Friday with season 4. By the end of the summer, Netflix will almost certainly proclaim the retro sci-fi series' latest season its biggest hit yet. But Stranger Things 4's viewership victory, set to trump the likes of Bridgerton and Squid Game, was assured weeks before a single subscriber streamed a second of it, when Netflix quietly tweaked its own popularity rules.

The change last month has already inflated the stats for shows like Ozark and Money Heist. Stranger Things 4 is next.  

Stranger Things 4's first volume of episodes hit Friday. The season's final two episodes, running nearly four hours combined, will land July 1.

Netflix

When the final numbers are in, Stranger Things 4 will likely eclipse Bridgerton and Squid Game in Netflix's all-time Most Popular rankings based on total hours watched. These are charts that Netflix updates weekly at Netflix Top 10. All three shows are colossally well-watched worldwide. But among them, only Stranger Things will enjoy Netflix counting its "watch time" for twice as long. Instead of tallying up viewing hours in its first 28 days of release, as Netflix did for Bridgerton and Squid Game, Netflix will be racking up Stranger Things 4's views over 56 days total thanks to its two-part release schedule. 

While these charts can be dismissed as pageantry without much consequence, they're still the most direct data available pointing people -- whether it's Wall Street suits, Hollywood insiders or viewers like you -- to the biggest titles on the world's largest streaming service. They give investors a gauge for Netflix's competitiveness, they can help Netflix recruit talent, and they stoke buzz that may nudge you to watch something you otherwise wouldn't. 

But Netflix measurement is about to take on much greater consequence, as the service launches advertising. For Netflix to be able to offer you a cheaper tier with ads, it will need to broaden its measurement beyond watch time and get more transparent in order to win over advertisers, experts say. 

Netflix has gotten by this far releasing whatever data it wants on its own terms, said Dallas Lawrence, the head of communications and brand for Samba TV, a television researcher and ad measurement firm. That will change when Netflix must sell itself to advertisers too. 

"The buyers will not allow Netflix to grade its own homework," Lawrence said. 

Watch time turned upside down 

When Netflix launched its Top 10 rankings website in November, it unlocked an unprecedented trove of viewing data. The site details the service's most-watched titles of the previous week and how many hours they were viewed, both globally and in more than 90 individual countries. For its most voraciously viewed titles, Netflix updates a set of Most Popular charts, which rank its most watched originals of all time. 

And for a show or movie to make it on the all-time Most Popular rankings, Netflix looks at the 28 days from its premiere to rack up watch hours. 

The latest season of Bridgerton, for example, is Netflix's most watched show in English at 656.3 million hours. Squid Game, the breakout South Korean dystopian thriller, is Netflix's most-watched show in any language, at 1.65 billion hours watched in the 28-day window. 

Squid Game is Netflix's most watched title so far. 

Netflix

That 28-day shot clock was the same for every movie and TV season, until May 10. Then Netflix quietly tweaked the rules to give some shows 56 days -- twice as long -- to amass views. For any series that releases its season in two "volumes" on different dates, the shot clock runs for 28 days after its first batch of episodes, then it resumes again for an additional 28 days after the second batch. Netflix counts the viewing of a volume's episodes only during that volume's first 28 days.

But shows like Stranger Things 4, with seven episodes out now and another two coming July 1, still get 56 days to generate viewing hours toward their ranking. And because the release of a second volume can come soon after the first, the first 28-day window can potentially include rewatch views of the first batch as fans catch up as the second approaches. In the case of Stranger Things 4, fans who immediately binge-watched volume one could revisit these episodes to refresh in anticipation of volume two. And any of that rewatching before June 23 would count.

Shows like Bridgerton and Squid Game, which followed the Netflix convention of releasing a full season at once, are still stuck with their count over 28 days.

Netflix disclosed this change by, essentially, updating its fine print. Judging by archived screenshots of the Top 10 website, Netflix added two sentences to its methodology statement on May 10. Netflix didn't otherwise disclose that it had altered its methodology for the Most Popular rankings.

When reached for comment on this article, Netflix referred to the methodology stated on its site.

Stranger Things 4 was already sure to be a smash by Netflix's standards. Its last season is among Netflix's most watched programs ever, even though it came out when Netflix had two-thirds the subscribers it does now. A three-year hiatus has built up fan demand, and this season's runtime is much longer than the rest. (Its runtime is also much longer than that of Squid Game or Bridgerton. Its first volume of episodes runs an hour longer than the entirety of Squid Game or Bridgerton's whole last season, and Stranger Things 4 still has nearly four hours coming July 1.)

But May's methodology change stacked the deck in favor of Stranger Things. It has already generated 286.8 million hours in the first three days of availability. With 53 more days on its shot clock, it needs to generate less than a tenth of that daily to accumulate enough watch time to become No. 1. 

Overnight sensations

The rule change has wildly inflated the watch time for several other shows already. Multiple programs suddenly appeared in Netflix's top 10 charts or shot to a much higher ranking, with hundreds of millions of hours suddenly added to their counts. 

Money Heist, which released its final season in two volumes, saw its watch-time ranking jump seemingly overnight after Netflix changed its popularity rules. 

Netflix

Money Heist is a hit Spanish thriller series also known as La Casa de Papel. Its final season was released in two volumes, with five episodes landing on Sept. 1 and the last five episodes arriving Dec. 1. After the methodology change in May, its watch time more than doubled. Money Heist is now positioned as Netflix's No. 2 most watched show of all time regardless of language, right after Squid Game. Before the rule change, it didn't even make the top 10. 

Other shows have gotten big bumps too. Fantasy police procedural Lucifer released half its fifth season in 2020 and the other half nearly a year later. Lucifer had been absent from Netflix's Most Popular rankings since they launched, but in May, it suddenly appeared as Netflix's No. 7 most-watched program in any language. The latest season of the drama Ozark, released partly on Jan. 21 and partly on April 29, needed three extra weeks of streaming after its original 28-day window to make the English language top 10. 

Netflix's Top 10 website still characterizes the watch time of all these shows as hours viewed in their "first 28 days on Netflix."

To bolster the credibility of its stats, Netflix recruited accounting firm EY -- formerly known as Ernst & Young, one of the world's biggest accounting companies -- to vet its data. But EY finished its first Netflix report in February, long before Netflix revised its methodology. And EY's report was a light-touch vetting called a review, which essentially accepts the measurement criteria as Netflix defines them and then verifies that the data abide by those rules. Netflix has no existing plans for another accounting review.

Grading its own homework

Netflix was notoriously tight-lipped about its viewership for years. Beau Willimon -- creator of House of Cards, which put Netflix's original programming on the map -- once said the company wouldn't even share audience metrics with him. But since 2018, Netflix has grown more open about the popularity of its shows and movies, culminating with its Top 10 website. 

During Stranger Things' three-year hiatus, Bridgerton became Netflix's most-watched show in English. 

Netflix

For Netflix to start offering you a cheaper tier with ads, it needs to actually win advertisers -- and advertisers won't go by Netflix's numbers. Because TV advertising is so expensive, brands and agencies want measurements comparable across services, so they can know what they're getting at Netflix versus Paramount Plus versus Disney Plus, said Needham senior analyst Laura Martin.

Netflix "can do weird things, like introduce new measurement," added Martin, who has called for Netflix to add advertising for years. "But it would slow adoption by advertisers."

Traditionally, advertisers evaluated TV programs by how many people tuned in. "As we enter this new phase, transparency around viewership data is going to be essential, especially on 'closed' platforms" like Netflix, said Anjali Midha, co-founder and CEO of Diesel Labs, a media intelligence firm. Viewership will naturally remain important, she added, but so will demographics, psychographics and other metrics of watching behavior.

But Netflix's own reputation as the gold standard of streaming TV will work in its favor, Lawrence said.

"Streaming has historically been rife with a myriad … sites that still seem like the Wild West, fraught with risky content," he said. 

Advertisers may come to welcome Netflix's safety and scope, even if its own measurement rules still shoot from the hip. 

Correction, 6:07 a.m. PT June 2: An earlier version of this story suggested Netflix may count viewing of all episodes from split-season shows over a full 56 days. Netflix counts the viewing of episodes only within 28 days of their release, but split-season shows get two 28-day periods -- 56 days total -- to amass watch time. 

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How Russia has spent a decade crumbling online freedoms

How Russia has spent a decade crumbling online freedoms

Aleksandr Litreev was on a way to a business meeting last February when his life changed forever. En route to a hotel in Yakaterinburg, a day's drive east of Moscow, Litreev was pulled over by police. When they asked him to hand over his phone, the then-24-year-old knew it was no routine traffic stop. 

"They took me to a police station," Litreev recalls, "and magically some drugs appear." Litreev said he was arrested by around 10 armed policemen, beaten into confessing to ecstasy possession, and then detained for a month. He managed to flee to Estonia after being released into house arrest. 

Litreev is a member of Russia's liberal opposition. Rather than rousing people to the ballot box, he builds internet tools that help everyday Russians fight against an increasingly controlling state. As part of the tightest squeeze on freedoms in Russia this century, critical online media publications have been labeled foreign agents, and platforms like Twitter and Facebook are being pressured to purge their platforms of content the Kremlin disapproves of. 

With Russia's parliamentary elections running on Sept. 17 through Sept. 19, the Kremlin has stepped up censorship. It's demanded keywords associated with the opposition be blocked from Google and Yandex, the domestic search giant, and that Google and Apple kick an opposition-made app from their app stores.

Litreev has been fighting back for years, creating an app that sends lawyers to defend arrested protesters and joining the "digital resistance" that countered the government's attempt to block encrypted-messenger Telegram.

"If I go back to Russia now, I will get something like lifetime imprisonment," Litreev said. "Not gonna happen." 

Before fleeing to Estonia, Litreev also worked with Alexei Navalny, who, for the last 10 years, has been the face of Russia's opposition to President Vladimir Putin. Navalny was poisoned by Russian spies in August 2020 and has since been jailed. Navalny's case shows how the Kremlin has lost any of the patience it once had: He was tolerated for nearly a decade -- as a popular blogger, investigative journalist and later an opposition politician -- before authorities attempted to eliminate him altogether.

"The things that are happening now have never happened before," said Litreev, explaining that authorities poisoning an opposition candidate would have been inconceivable as recently as 2017. "And now we're here." 

Aleksandr Litreev, a software developer who fled to to Estona amid Russia's opposition crackdown.

Aleksandr Litreev

Digital wargames 

In 2017, Litreev made his first significant venture into opposition politics. A YouTube expose from Navalny alleged that then-Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev had embezzled over $1.2 billion, sparking protests in Moscow and St. Petersburg that turned into a general rebuke of widespread corruption and political repression.

Litreev's contribution was an app called Red Button. If protesters thought they were at risk of arrest, they could open the app and press the big red button it presented. That would automatically call a lawyer, who also receives the protester's emergency contact details and a GPS signal of their location.

"It's basically Uber, but for a lawyer," Litreev said. It was used extensively by demonstrators at the time, which got the attention of Kremlin authorities. "That's the point where pressure on me started," he added.

Litreev, then 21 and fresh out of university, was motivated to join the opposition movement as he watched the Kremlin ratchet up internet restrictions. A 2014 law allowed the telecommunications regulator, Roskomnadzor, to block access to online media that called for "unsanctioned mass public events." In 2016, Putin signed a bill requiring telecommunications companies to store their customers' text messages and phone calls for up to six months. 

The law was used as a pretext to ban Telegram, a platform created by eccentric Russian-born developer Pavel Durov that doubles as an instant messenger and a social media platform. (Durov is now based in Dubai.) It allows for encrypted messages between people, like WhatsApp, but also for public figures and groups to create "channels" that can have millions of followers. Russian authorities wanted control over Telegram, and stopping them became Litreev's next project.

Thousands rallied for "internet freedom" in 2018 after Roskomnadzor banned Telegram. Many protested by bringing paper planes, Telegram's symbol.

Mikhail Tereshchenko/Getty

In 2018, the Kremlin ordered Durov to hand over keys that would allow the FSB, the successor to the Soviet KGB, to unscramble the app's encrypted messages. Roskomnadzor's stated goal was to fight terrorist attacks, like a 2017 train bombing in St. Petersburg, which it claimed were spreading thanks to Telegram and apps like it. Durov refused, calling the request both unconstitutional and technically untenable. What followed was a game of hide-and-seek that lasted for two years.

Roskomnadzor banned Telegram in April 2018, pulling down the app's servers. Scores of Russian internet users -- dubbed the Digital Resistance -- countered by hosting Telegram on proxy servers, which Roskomnadzor found and banned too. For his part, Litreev helped create software that deployed millions of proxy servers at once, making it impossible for Russian authorities to manually pull them down individually.

"They got tired of banning IP address by IP address, so they started to ban whole subnetworks, ranges of IP addresses," he said. "At some point, when we got our service hosted on Amazon and on Google Cloud, they accidentally banned a huge subnet which belongs to Google."

Those attempts to ban Telegram were unsuccessful. Not only did the service remain accessible, its Russian user base actually grew. Meanwhile, with authorities hastily banning up to 19 million IP addresses, Google and Amazon services were briefly unusable throughout Russia.

Roskomnadzor had a choice: either block a huge range of IP addresses and risk more catastrophic blackouts, or rescind the ban on Telegram. "It was a fight for all or nothing," Litreev said.

After two years, Roskomnadzor relented, lifting its Telegram ban last June on the grounds that the company would help it with terrorism inquiries in the future. The Digital Resistance won this battle, the latest in a war that had been going on since 2012. 

Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin in 2012. 

Natalia Kolesnikova/Getty

The first ruling 

Russia is often grouped with China as a troublesome autocracy. A common misconception related to this comparison is that Russia has always had a fiercely censored internet. But unlike China's internet, which was built from the ground up not to rely on Western companies or users, Russia's internet largely grew freely from the mid-'90s. 

That began to change in 2012, when Putin became president for the second time.

Much like the US, Russian presidents were bound by the constitution to serve no more than two consecutive four-year terms. So in 2008, when Putin swapped places with Dmitry Medvedev, becoming prime minister while Medvedev assumed the presidency, many suspected it was a ploy to circumvent constitutional limits. Those suspicions were confirmed when he announced his intention to run as president again in 2011.

When Putin's United Russia party retained a majority in the parliamentary elections two months later -- elections local monitors and the EU said were fraudulent -- protests erupted. Tens of thousands demanded free elections and the release of political prisoners. But what concerned the Kremlin wasn't the demonstrators, but how they managed to organize themselves. These protests were the biggest the country had seen since the '90s, and they were powered by social media.

"The driving force back then was the internet -- social media, Facebook and Twitter," said Andrei Soldatov, a journalist and co-author of The Red Web, a book that details Russia's tightening grip on internet freedoms. "That was the moment the Kremlin started paying attention to this new threat, and it was absolutely clear that it was the big thing for years to come."

The "Snow Revolution" protests in Moscow, 2011.

Epsilon/Getty

Online freedoms began unraveling a month after Putin took office in 2012. The Russian Duma (the lower house of the Federal Assembly) started drafting an internet restriction bill that lawmakers claimed was necessary to protect minors from child sexual abuse material, online drug markets and content that encouraged self harm. In practice, it allowed government authorities to create an internet blacklist.

Roskomnadzor now had legal cover to pull down websites it didn't like. Today, the internet in Russia is still markedly more open than it is in countries like China, Egypt and Vietnam. But Russia's strategy of censorship is more subtle, focused less on suppressing speech than on oppressing competition.

"The idea is not to prevent you from getting information," Soldatov said. "The idea is to discourage you from participating in political activities of any kind, online or offline." 

The Kremlin's aversion to political opposition explains why political protests are often followed by a tightening of controls. The Moscow demonstrations of 2011 and 2012 led to the first internet restriction bill, and Telegram was targeted in 2018 after protests were organized on the platform. 

Then, in 2019, the opposition began translating online engagement into electoral victories.

A new era

Activists, journalists and opposition politicians had proven adept at maneuvering around the digital barriers the Kremlin had been throwing up since 2012. Navalny continued to use his prominent online platform to trouble authorities. Though demonized on state TV, many of his YouTube documentaries on shadowy Kremlin activities racked up hundreds of millions of views. Older Russians who regularly watched Russian television thought Navalny was a menace. Many middle-class, internet-savvy Russians, however, were receptive to his cause.

Though the Kremlin punished Navalny in various ways, convicting him on trumped-up fraud charges and barring him from running for office, authorities showed some restraint in suppressing his movement.

"Navalny was tolerated for a decade," said William Partlett, a professor at Melbourne Law School who researches post-Soviet societies and is authoring a book on Navalny. "He was exposing high-level corruption among very important, powerful people in the inner circle of the Kremlin. And he was allowed to do that, and I think the idea was, 'we can manage this guy.'" 

That changed in 2019. Navalny, unable to run for Moscow city council himself, encouraged his followers to adopt the "smart voting" doctrine. It meant voting for anyone other than the ruling United Russia party, be they liberals, avowed communists or hardcore nationalists. The plan worked: The "systemic opposition" won 20 of Moscow's 45 seats, reducing the United Russia Party's majority from 38 to 25.

The same system was used successfully in regional elections, ousting three United Russia governors. In a world where freedom of expression is fine up until the point where it infringes on Kremlin control, this was all unacceptable. Navalny's opposition movement was powered by online platforms, from Telegram to Twitter, and now it was producing tangible offline results. 

"Now the question for Putin becomes, is the internet manageable?" Partlett said.

The Kremlin cracked down hard. An online libel law was enacted last December, allowing sites to be blocked and people to be jailed for "defaming" public figures. Specific activists and journalists have been targeted: one journalist was jailed for 25 days for retweeting a photo that carried the date and time of a planned protest, while a video of police violently interrogating blogger Gennady Shulga was leaked by the police themselves, Shulga said, "to show people what the authorities can do." 

Navalny's treatment played out in front of the world. He was poisoned in an airport in August 2020, then flown to Berlin, where he recuperated. After returning to Russia, he was immediately imprisoned. Meanwhile, Putin amended the constitution in April to allow him to rule as president until 2036. 

Alexei Navalny, the face of Russia's liberal opposition, is currently jailed in Russia. 

Dmitry Serebryakov/Getty

Taking on big tech

Litreev talks about his exploits like a nimble David outmaneuvering a lumbering, sluggish Goliath. He knows the battle will be perilous but expects he and his fellow activists will ultimately prevail. 

"The level of expertise and level of professionalism on the government side is much lower than our side," he said.

Litreev points to a spat between Twitter and Kremlin as evidence. In March, Roskomnadzor demanded Twitter take down thousands of tweets dating back to 2017 that encouraged illegal activity -- which includes child porn, drug markets and, of course, news stories related to opposition candidates. To motivate Twitter to fulfill the request, the telecoms regulator throttled Twitter's speed for months. 

But, in a flashback to the Roskomnadzor inadvertently blocking Google amid a clumsy attempt to ban Telegram, sites like Reddit.com and Microsoft.com went down too. People realized that authorities had targeted the "t.co" link-shortening formation Twitter uses, which clobbered any website that ended with the letter "t."

It was a conspicuous fumble on the part of Roskomnadzor, but authorities did manage to isolate and slow down Twitter. The initial missteps masked the use of a concerning new suite of powers that had been signed into law in 2019, called "the sovereign internet," or RuNet. 

The law requires ISPs to connect a new range of state hardware to internet exchange points. These "big red boxes" all direct to a control center in Moscow and allow the Kremlin to manage the flow of traffic from one region of the country to another. The system has been called a "digital Iron Curtain," akin to China's Great Firewall that separates its internet from the rest of the world. 

Soldatov says this comparison is inaccurate. The Kremlin isn't interested in isolating itself from the rest of the internet, he says, since that would prove economically ruinous. Rather, it's a tool to control the flow of information from one region of the country to the next.

"The sovereign internet was never about the West. It's about what's going on inside the country," he said. "The most sensitive content is generated inside the country."

Moscovites protesting the jailing of Navalny in April.

Anadolu Agency/Getty

Roskomnadzor was able to pair the new sovereign internet hardware with existing data surveillance technology to selectively slow Twitter traffic. In the future, the Kremlin could use the same technology to, for example, throttle certain apps to prevent livestreams from a protest in Moscow from reaching other parts of the country. 

It was the government's first known experiment with its newest online tools -- and it worked.

Twitter has removed over 6,000 tweets, according to Roskomnadzor. In the months since, Russian authorities have demanded Facebook take down content, fined Google $81,000 for not taking down content, and told Facebook and Twitter to store all data of Russian users within the country. On Aug. 26, Twitter and Facebook were both fined for not storing such data quickly enough.

Facebook, Google and Twitter declined to comment. Roskomnadzor was contacted but didn't respond. 

Just as the Kremlin pressures Facebook, Google and Twitter, it fosters local substitutes like RuTube, a YouTube alternative owned by the state gas company. Law requires Android phones to come preloaded with 16 Russian-made apps, including the VK social media app and the Yandex search engine, while Apple is required to prompt Russians to download the apps during the setup process of new iPhones. It's part of a plan meant to better allow authorities to control online platforms so that anti-Kremlin content can't go viral. 

"The tools the Russian government uses are evolving with time. They are much more advanced if we compare them to, say, 2018," Litreev acknowledged. "But modern problems require modern solutions." 

The modern problems

Litreev's latest project is Solar Labs, a decentralized VPN that's based on blockchain and incentivized with cryptocurrency. The Solar Labs platform will allow people around the world to host their own VPN servers, for which they'll be paid with Solar Labs cryptocurrency tokens. If enough people from a variety of countries host their own VPN servers, it'll be impossible for all servers to be taken down at once. 

"Even if the government will do whatever it takes to block our service, they will not succeed unless they just shut the whole internet for the whole country," he said. Solar Labs is designed to be useful not just for Russians, but also Iranians, Chinese and Belarussians, all of whom face strict internet censorship. 

Litreev says the Kremlin's crackdowns on activists, journalists and dissidents are acts of hysteria. The more extreme the measure, the more desperation it reflects. 

And the measures have gotten extreme. It's not just in Russia, either. In May, Belarus' ruler, who's closely aligned with Putin, used military force to ground a RyanAir plane midflight to detain a dissident journalist. The whole region's rules are being rewritten.

Litreev wants to go home to see old faces and places, but says people like him need to work to create a safe Russia. He hopes that Solar Labs' VPN, which launches in September, will be part of that process. Meanwhile, Litreev feels safe in Estonia -- though he makes sure any flights he takes avoid both Russian and Belarusian airspace. 

Soldatov, living in London, is less hopeful. He said he was optimistic five years ago, when he co-authored The Red Web, but that the events since then have sapped his confidence.

"We use this word, 'unprecedented,'" he said. "The problem when something is unprecedented is you cannot calculate your risks, because you do not know where they are going to stop." 

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